Just over a year ago, in early 2024, we posted “Not a Bubble! Just a Bull Market!” The S&P 500 had cracked $5000, and analysts called for another 10%–15% upside. Instead, we got 57 all-time highs and a run to 6100 by early 2025. Then—predictably—the wheels came off.
Then, the bubble burst. And now, we’re firmly in bear market territory. (Until something bizarre happens in what has become a totally bimodal world.
Despite markets flashing overvaluation signals for months, the sell-side herd—less than 1% of whom raised concerns—ignored the basics of financial analysis. Only a couple of independent voices (which we’ve followed for years) stuck to fundamentals and called the setup for what it was: bubblish. All others shilled stock tips on financial infotainment networks.
The parallels to Greenspan’s 1996 “irrational exuberance” are obvious. Back then, P/E ratios stretched like rubber bands for three more years before snapping. Today’s difference? Warnings were louder, and the math was worse.
For months, analysts dismissed ballooning deficits, a total absence of fiscal discipline, and the uncomfortable reality that S&P 500 returns were driven by 6–7 megacap names. Still, the bulls—like Tom Lee of Fundstrat—were pounding the table, calling for 7500 on the S&P by year-end, citing “sideline cash” as justification for infinite multiple expansion.
And then, the proverbial shit hit the fan. Not only did stock market bubble finally burst, the US stock market is for all intense and purposes, now in a bear market.
Yes, the US equities markets had been “ridiculously over-valued for months”. Yet few (and less than 1% of ‘sell-side anal-ists’) were willing to acknowledge the basic fundamental set up of US stock prices had contradicted every tenant and every pillar of simple financial analysis.
In point of fact, this writer can point to no more than 2 of upwards of three dozen contemporary, independent research analysts that we follow. Those two individuals have been adamantly pounding the table that by every macroeconomic measure employed for the past 100 years (including those used by 96 Nobel Prize Laureates for Economic Science), US stock prices were bubblish. We cite one of those people below, so keep reading.
Yes, in 1996, Alan Greenspan became infamous for describing US equities market investors as being “irrationally exuberant”, only for everyone to watch stock prices continue higher for the next three years, and while PE multiple expanded beyond the stretch of a standard rubber band. And then, the bubble burst.
Of course, hindsight can point to the myriad of over-valuation metrics that have existed for months. And those metrics have kept “Black Swan Event” as a minor weighting. After all Black Swans are rare, and recent history suggests even those ‘events’ whether geopolitical or a global health crisis haven’t kept a good market down for long.
The Blind Mice on Wall Street have continuously discounted the expanding US budget deficits, the lack of any Federal Government fiscal policy, the benchmark S&P 500 index having YoY gains of 20% + thanks entirely to six or seven stocks (out of 500).
“Its all fine” say pediatric pundits like Fundstrat Capital Tom Lee. “Our base case analysis is that S&P 500 will close 2025 up another 15% and hit $7500 by year end!” Of course, no explanation as to fundamental metrics have been provided, other than to suggest PE multiples can expand because of ‘all of the money on the sidelines that will be coming into stocks”.
Adding insult to injury, the geniuses smirked when the largest shareholders in the companies that had advanced 200%-300% within a matter of months became systematic sellers of their shares. You didn’t need to appreciate that Warren Buffett, arguably the best investor of two generations, had continuously “fed the ducks” for the past six months, bringing Berkshire Hathaway holdings to nearly 40% cash. THAT HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN HIS HISTORY.
But, the perma bull geniuses of this generation employed by the ‘biggest and smartest banks’ (mostly the ones who are under the age of 45, who wouldn’t know a bear market could last more than two weeks if it clawed them in the eyes), and the cohort of ‘expert market strategy analysts from Wall Street’ whose job is to SELL YOU INVESTMENTS, NOT TO CAUTION YOU OR KEEP YOU FROM BUYING THEIR INVESTMENT PRODUCTS OR INVESTMENT IDEAS, ALL MISSED EVERY RED FLAG.
PS-The REAL RED FLAG was American enabling Donald Trump to assume the thrown of US President. Via dozens of posts made by us on X, we posited that Blind Mice who have been drinking Trump-brand KoolAid since he was first elected President would wake up with a hangover within 9 months of taking office. This is a fellow who, since Inauguration Day, has knowingly made literally HUNDREDS of false accusations, fraudulent claims against those who oppose him, and has repeatedly advanced bizarre statements about the ‘great accomplishments we’ve already made’. We did not anticipate the disasters and the havoc he promised to wreak would unfold within a matter of weeks.
The ironic part is that Trump so much as acknowledged this ‘linguistic judo style’ ten days ago when being interviewed by Bill Maher, the comedian and political satirist. Trump smirked and smiled every time Maher cited instances of absurd comments and claims Trump has made.
But, per above, there have been a few independent, non-conflicted financial market observers who saw all of this coming. One who deserves a shout-out is Michael Kramer of Mott Capital. If you’ve never heard of him, or never seen or listened to his work, you should. He’s also a long-only fund manager overseeing a Family Office and advances his thoughts across social media, including https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM, where he has 100k+ followers.
Kramer had appeared on Fox Business a few times in recent years, but because of his pervasive, less-than-sanguine, if not cynical views when it comes to stocks having unsustainable PE ratios amidst a backdrop of weakening economic metrics, outlets like the Cartoon Channel CNBC have never put him in front of a camera. Simply because guests on CNBC are expected to promote individual stocks to the audience, and Kramer hasn’t seen fit to recommend buying a single stock in the last two years.
Yes, even cynics found it difficult to argue that the AI revolution which has existed for years, but began in earnest when the world witnessed the launch of ChatGPT in November 2023 is and will be monumental. When ChatGPT launched, the S&P 500 catapulted by 20% within a matter of a few quarters, and the fact that gain was attributed to all of 5 stocks out of 500 in the index simply didn’t matter.
For the following 18 months, all one could hear or read about was the advent of a new technological revolution that would alter the course of mankind, much like the invention of the steam engine, then electricity, then the train, then the automobile, then the internet. Let’s not leave out the invention of the Atomic Bomb.
And for you MAGA Merchants of Mayhem, The King of Flip Flops and Falsehoods, who had always likened stock prices to his success, changed his mind when the US equity market cratered beginning in February of 2025. Why? His answer: “because circumstances changed.”
Shortly after launching a Tariff War against allies across the globe on “Liberation Day”, US equities proceeded to decline nearly 20% in a matter of weeks, and investors in US equities watched as the total value liberated from investment accounts, pension accounts, retirement accounts etc. lost since his inauguration went from $5Trillion lost in the Feb-Mar time period, to $10Trillion within another 10 days.
Trump stated “I am not concerned with the stock market at all” (because he doesn’t own any stocks). This is the same guy, who while making national speeches on Inauguration Day, was focused on promoting his Trump meme coin $TRUMP. Within a matter of 2 hours, the pump and dump became a classic event; at least 3 ‘insiders’ working with the Trump family to launch the shitcoin realized $300 million in profits. Within the following 10 hours, retail investors who drank the Kool Aid lost more than $1billion.
And of course, his cohort of serial sycophants continue to trumpet Trump’s daily jibber jabber. From Howard Butt Lick Lutnick (who sold his portfolio of stock holdings without having to pay capital gains tax), to Scott Bessent, whose claim to fame is breaking the Bank of England, and now seems determined to break the US Federal Reserve System while insisting there should be a US Bitcoin Reserve (because $BTC is somehow something valuable vs the US Dollar), to Trade Czar Peter Nefarious Navarro, to even hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman.
It’s as if the movie playing out in barely the first three months of Trump V.2 was taken from script elements acquired by Harvey Weinstein (who made millions producing fright films), and a combination of scenes taken from a Kafkaesque-like interpretation of Alice In Wonderland, Dr. Strangelove, The Apprentice TV Show, and Scream Part 5.
Let’s be clear. The new White House regime, which seems to include a non-elected co-president named Elon Musk, is best described as a cacophony of lip-synching sycophants with a cheerleading squad of blonde button brains who hold roles ranging from Attorney General Pam Bondi, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce, to Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. All of them screech like a horde of Screech Owls, Monkeys and Parrots. To the latter, of course they all parrot what King Orangutang Donald Trump says, including the rinse and repeating the same nonsense that comes out of his sphincter.
The last time that a President of the United States launched a Tariff War against the rest of the world was under the administration of Herbert Hoover. Few will recall what resulted; it was called The Great Depression. To the millions who voted for Trump, and continue to remain staunch supporters of him, and his cabal of crazies, he fooled you once, and how he’s fooled you again. And he’s very likely to have set the stage for the destruction of the Great American Experiment. But, have no worries, you can always take your $TRUMP coin to the grocery store in order to purchase adult diapers.
With a press secretary who has never been a press secretary and screams “Fake News!” every time she is questioned about a tweet that Trump had made within the past hour (and each time, its not fake news as Trump’s fingerprints are always found to be on the stupid button). 
We think not. And for a host of reasons. Not because SVB is akin to the community bank Bailey Building and Loan, the bank portrayed in the iconic film starring Jimmy Stewart, 
