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ETF News, Global Macro Strategy, People Profiles, Strike Price

Trump Surrenders Tariff Folly After Realizing Xi Holds The Cards; $SPX Surges

In what might (or not) be viewed as a ‘stunning reversal’, yet otherwise a [brief] sigh of relief for US Equities investors, Current US President Donald Pump & Dump Trump reversed himself yet again this weekend, and raised a flag of surrender after he was told by advisors that Chinese President Xi is the one who holds the Mah Jong cards. After claiming that he made a “great deal” by tabling tariffs on China for ninety-days, US equities markets surged today, and re-claimed levels not seen since Trump doubled-down on his saber-rattling during the second week of March.

Trump Raises White Flag of Surrender in Tariff War That He Started

Whether the discussions this weekend between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his Chinese counterparts included any disclosure as to whether the CCP has a full, un-redacted copy of the infamous Jeffrey Epstein files remains to be seen. Whether Secretary of Commerce Howard ButtLick had advance notice of Trump’s plan to surrender is also uncertain, despite a rumoured whistle-blower’s claim that Cantor Fitzgerald, the brokerage firm owned by ButtLlick and currently operated by his 20-something year old sons, had purchased 20,000 $SPY options late Friday afternoon before the market closed.

What is hard to argue is that China President Xi has always kept Sun Tzu’s “Art of War” by his bedside, while his American counterpart is believed to remain fixated on his ghost-written book, “The Art of the Deal”, and according to Trump’s since-deceased first wife, his other favorite bedside book was Mein Kampf.

So, for the time being, US Equities investors, along with US Corporate CEOs and CFOs are breathing a sigh of relief after weeks of hand-wringing as to the chaos and calamity that Trump has rained down on the prospects for the US Economy and US Consumer Confidence.

Let’s reflect back one week ago, when Trump insisted “This is Joe Biden’s Stock Market!”, or go back to merely five weeks ago when the ‘smartest Wall Street strategists’ had revised their 2025 year-end outlooks down by as much as 20% since their respective beginning of year forecasts. Now consider that $SPX is (as of this writing) well above levels predicted by more than half of the pundits. And, we still have seven months remaining in the year! Kudos to Evercore’s Julian Emanuel for being a savant by predicting “We could go as low as $SPX $3200, or as high as $6200-$6500.” And only five weeks ago, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said “We are likely to go down to $SPY $4000, if not $3200!”

  • Jefferies: Downgrades its S&P 500 estimate to 5,300 points (from 6,000), warning about stagflation risks.
  • J.P. Morgan: Lowers its target to 5,200 points, the most conservative among major firms.
  • Goldman Sachs: Reduces its forecast from 6,500 to 6,200 points due to political uncertainty and lower expected growth.
  • Bank of America: Adjusts its target to 5,600 points, aligning with a moderate cooling scenario.
  • Evercore: Cuts its projection to 5,600 points, reflecting a defensive approach.
  • Oppenheimer: Lowers its estimate to 5,950 points, a 16% cut from its previous forecast.
  • Deutsche Bank: Maintains its optimistic view with a target of 7,000 points by year-end.

Is the Bull Market Back, and are we out of the woods?

We know one thing, Retail Investors Have Made Monkeys Out of Institutional Investors this year, continuing a pattern that has been in place for several years.

Taking the pulse of technical analysts is fool’s errand, if not a fatal exercise, given that ‘charts’ merely reflect historical patterns, not future actions. Some claim to have presciently predicted the rally of the past weeks, and include those who maintain this 20% recovery from the April lows is a classic, if not violent, ‘bear market rally.’ Others are expecting the “Wall Street Genius Crowd” to follow the path of Deutsche Bank’s unwavering bullish view throughout, and will be issuing revised year-end 2025 forecasts for the fourth time in four months within a few days to now predict we surge well beyond early January’s ATHs.

This veteran market observer is self-aware enough to be as perplexed as could be, yet now that CNN Greed-Fear Index has tilted 180 degrees to GREED from Extreme Fear readings, and now that $VIX is back under $20 after teetering for weeks between $24-$32 (while the VIX futures calendar spreads have been continuously ‘inverted’ and now back to premiums), one could speculate that the recent historic recovery in US stock prices might be reaching a near-term top. Or, we could march much higher. Toss a coin.

Said a different way, we have no fucking idea, and those who want to postulate are free to do so. We do know one thing, the MAGA Merchants of Mayhem, led by their King, will continue to assert their self-proclaimed privaleges to deny anyone else of their rights, the Trump Crime Family will continue to perpetrate conflict of financial interest escapades (that pale in comparison to the charges GOP members made about Hunter Biden), bold-faced lies and preposterous propaganda will continue to be spewed by the current regime, and the syncophants will continue to help steer the ship of fools that is captained by someone who should be certified as plain fucking crazy.

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ETF News, Global Macro Strategy, People Profiles, Tech Talk

Rumors of Bull’s Demise Exaggerated?

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In our April 16 post, “From Bubble to Bloodbath,” we noted the S&P 500 ($SPX) was already down 10% YTD, after falling nearly 19% from the 2025 peak of 6100 to a closing low of 4982.

This 40-year trading veteran (along with other market observers) called it: a bear market had arrived.
Within two days — after another 2% drop — US equities staged a near-5% rally.

WTF is going on?

For those of us trading since the turn of the century, the answer is partly historical: bear markets have become progressively shorter. Whether during the GFC or the pandemic, the Fed was first blamed for selloffs, then credited for bailouts. Meanwhile, the “Battle of the Transformers” — algorithm-driven trading — fuels rapid selloffs and even faster rebounds. (Anyone remember the Flash Crash of 2010?)

More context:

  • Since 2000 through YTD 2025, the S&P 500 has seen 17 years with intrayear drawdowns of 10% or more.
  • Only 6 of those years closed lower: 2000, 2001, 2002 (DotCom Bubble), 2008 (GFC), 2018 (Fed tightening crash), and 2022 (Inflation bear).
  • 17 of those years ultimately posted positive returns.
  • 2025 remains undecided.

Factoid fans, take note:
No prior year has seen Wall Street analysts flip their year-end forecasts so violently — from “up 10%+” to “down 10%” within a three-month window.
Now, 98% of the Street that slashed SPX targets to 5400–5800 will likely flip again — with $SPX just 3%-5% below the “best case” targets pitched by the top 10 banks earlier this year.

Major drawdowns since 2008:

YearMax Intrayear Drawdown (%)Context
2008-57%Global Financial Crisis
2009-28%Post-crisis volatility
2010-16%Flash Crash, Eurozone crisis
2011-19%US Debt Ceiling & S&P Downgrade
2018-20%Fed tightening, December crash
2020-34%COVID pandemic crash
2022-25%Fed hikes, inflation bear
2025-19.5%Post-2024 blowoff retrace

Outcomes:

  • 3 ended down: 2008, 2018, 2022
  • 3 ended up: 2009, 2010, 2020
  • 1 ended flat: 2011

And of course, none of those years featured a sitting US President personally driving market volatility, while simultaneously launching a full-scale trade war.

Now, after a 15%+ rebound from the early April lows, who would be shocked if Wall Street strategists are considering yet another narrative pivot.

That said, we rarely embrace histograms or “past history”, and we discount technical analysts who now want to reference “The Zweig Thrust” (which suggests ‘the technicals’ are pointing to a resurgence in a bullish set up) when visibility is so opaque. Said a different way, as expected, this earnings season is kicking off with a common theme from corporate CEOs and CFOs: “We are holding back guidance and not prepared to provide forward earnings projections simply because the compound effects of the Tariff War, coupled with less than optimistic economic outlooks with respect to a Tariff-induced Recession on the US Economy makes it impossible for us to forecast.” Not exactly inspiring.

Main Street Bulls Trounce Institutional Investors in April.

Notwithstanding an easy to grasp “less than sanguine setup”, according to data from Fidelity and Schwab, retail investors were either large net buyers of stocks throughout the April Showers, while hedge funds and other institutional managers were liquidating long positions. Now that April is proving to be an up month for stocks, and have bounced 15%+ from the Liberation Day lows, the notion that retail investors represent “dumb money” has once again been dispelled.

The fact is, the universe of retail investors has grown 10-fold in recent years, and their access to information, and their ability to decipher a range of data points is on par with nearly any or all of the geniuses working for Wall Street firms. More to the point, the ‘dumb money’ has been trained to deploy funds during ‘panic’ moments, and truth be told, that strategy has worked on a pretty consistent basis.

We don’t know. But it’s fun to observe the streams on X that have arm chair quarterbacks with crystal balls continue to tout and shout. Including a fellow by the name of David Hunter aka DaveHcontrarian who back in January 2023 had predicted a ‘market meltup that would take the $SPX from 4000 to 6000 before June!” Well, $SPX did reach $6000 24 months later (not 6 months later). And every week, since the beginning of 2025, including this week, Hunter insists “$SPX will surpass $7500 within months!” He adds that “once that rally meets my target (certainly before year-end), equity markets across the globe will suffer a 50%-60% crash.” Who doesn’t love financial porn?

Whether the ‘Buy-The-Dip’ philosophy has a shelf life of a more than a few weeks during the current cycle of uncertainty remains to be determined. Anyone who claims to be able to predict what might happen in three months, no less than 3 hours is in need of medication.

Instead, this outlet prefers to embrace insight offered by a select few un-conflicted folks (e.g. former JPM strategist Marko Kolanovic, Neil Azous of Rareview Capital, and FO manager Michael Kramer of Mott Capital who collectively have near-on 100 years experience and each combine macro analysis, true fundamental analysis and a sprinkling of technical indicators to form their short, medium and longer-term views.

Prescient or Piped into the President?

Thomas Peterffy, the 80-year-old billionaire founder of Interactive Brokers, is not just a long-time Trump supporter (vocally and financially); he’s also a fellow Mar-A-Lago member.

Peterffy, who built Timber Hill before launching IBKR, has made a number of prescient market calls over decades. In early April, while SPX was clawing its way off the mat, Peterffy hit the airwaves proclaiming:

“This is the greatest buying opportunity of my entire career!”

This came less than 24 hours before Trump’s surprise announcement — a 90-day pause on new tariffs (“Liberation Day”) — which ignited a 6% SPX rally over six sessions.

Coincidence?

Editor’s Note:
One of us has known Peterffy for over four decades and briefly served as a senior IBKR executive (and crafted their now-famous slogan). No accusation is made that Peterffy was tipped by anyone at Mar-A-Lago. We’ll also refrain from speculating whether Secretary of Commerce Howard Butt Lick might be more prone to… “monetizing information” obtained over Sunday brunch.

Global Macro Strategy, People Profiles

Trump Inc Merchandise Launches Flip-Flop Footwear

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For Immediate Release

April 17 2025, Mar-A-Lago, Florida- The Trump Organization today announced the introduction of its latest Trump-branded merchandise product, and in the first day of sales at the on-line Trump Store, it has already become one of America’s greatest, and best-selling casual footwear products; The Trump Flip-Flops.

Designed in America, (but made somewhere else), the Trump Flip-Flops are ideal for the beach, lounging by the pool at your favorite country club (including Mar-A-Lago), and is the perfect footwear for those Great Americans who are mining clean coal in Appalachia.

In announcing the lauch of this new product, President Trump stated, “These flip-flops will never sink, even if the stock market does!”

trump premium merchandise, the trump flip-flops

According to President Trump’s White House spokesperson Karin Leavitt, “We are all wearing these fantastic, and uniquely comfortable casual sandles. Those who don’t wear them will be barred from any White House or Mar-A-Lago events, and US Attorney General Pam Bondi will be prosecuting anyone who shows up to meet the President if they are not properly attired with the Trump Flip-Flop footwear”

When asked where the Flip-Flops are manufactured, Leavitt stated, “It’s nobody’s business where they are made, they were designed in America!” When asked if the footwear will be subjected to Trump’s new global tariff policy, Leavitt stated, “Of course there will be an exemption on this product!

Leavitt added, President Trump’s trade policies, which are being advanced by Commerce Secretary Howard Butt Lick Lutnick, are designed to be fair to those who support us!”

When further asked about the warning label on the back of each flip-flop that reads “Do Not Lick: This Product Might Cause Foot-In-Mouth Disease”, Leavitt stated “You must have purchased an authorized ‘knock-off’ on the Dark Web, and one that was obviously made in China! After all, nobody is licking the President’s feet, or his flip-flops!”

The Trump Flip-Flops come with a 15-second guarantee, and those using Trump Meme Coin $TRUMP to purchase a pair will receive a 10% discount on one flip-flop.

Global Macro Strategy

Trump: Liar Liar Pants on Fire

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Since President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, fact-checkers have documented a substantial number of false or misleading statements made by him in public speeches, interviews, and official addresses. While an exact count is challenging due to the volume and frequency of these statements, several notable instances highlight this pattern:​

  • Inauguration Day Remarks: During his inaugural address and subsequent statements on January 20, 2025, fact-checkers identified multiple false and misleading claims, many of which were repetitions from his campaign. ​Wikipedia
  • January 28 During a signing ceremony Wednesday for the Laken Riley Act, President Donald Trump claimed that his administration had “identified and stopped $50 million being sent to Gaza to buy condoms for Hamas.”
  • Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, made a similar claim on Tuesday during her debut press briefing, stating that the Department of Government Efficiency and the Office of Management and Budget “found that there was about to be $100 million taxpayer dollars that went out the door to fund condoms in Gaza.” She called the alleged aid “a preposterous waste of taxpayer money.” But there’s no credible evidence to support these claims. Except there weren’t 3.3 billion condoms. What condoms there were weren’t for Hamas. And even those didn’t go to the Gaza Strip.They went here to Gaza Province, Mozambique, where residents are surprised that the world’s most-powerful man mixed up the two Gazas and won’t admit he is wrong.
  • Address to Congress: On March 4, 2025, in his address to a joint session of Congress, President Trump made several inaccurate claims. For example, he falsely stated that “millions of centenarians were receiving Social Security benefits”, a claim instigated by Elon Musk and stemming from outdated software and incomplete records. ​AP News+1Wikipedia+1
  • Mar-a-Lago News Conference: In a news conference held on August 8, 2024, NPR reported that President Trump made at least 162 misstatements, exaggerations, and outright lies in a 64-minute span. ​Wikipedia

These examples illustrate a consistent pattern of misinformation and exaggeration in President Trump’s public communications during his second term. For ongoing and detailed analyses, resources like PolitiFact, FactCheck.org, and The Washington Post’s Fact Checker provide comprehensive fact-checking of political figures, including President Trump.​

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Global Macro Strategy, People Profiles

Trump & Co Enable Shareholder Lawsuits Against Cuba; Libertad Act 3.0

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Long Live the Libertad Act! Taking aim at the Cuban Government, US President Donald Trump and his Board of Directors, led by Secretary of Treasury Steve Mnuchin and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. announced that US shareholders of companies that were seized and nationalized by Fidel Castro when the now-deceased Cuban ruler first took control of Cuba in 1959 can now sue the Cuban government for losses they sustained. Of the several dozen US companies nationalized by Castro in 1959, shareholders of Vicana Sugar Co., also known as Compania Azucarera Vicana, lost the entirety of their investments and can now seek recourse.

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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the US will enforce a controversial provision of the decades-old trade embargo on Cuba that will allow US citizens to file lawsuits in US federal court against businesses that operate on property seized by the Cuban government during the revolution — the first administration to do so since the law’s creation in 1996. Pompeo said Title III of the Helms-Burton Act, also known as the Libertad Act, would be implemented in full effective May 2.

trump-mnuchin-libertad-act-cuba-vicana-sugar-shareholder-lawsuits-azucarera-vicana
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Wife Displaying Enlarged Version of Vicana Sugar Co. stock certificate

According to at least two White House sources speaking off the record, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was influential in guiding President Trump to implement this new tactic after Mnuchin’s wife had purportedly acquired a large cache of stock certificates from an estate that owned the shares and were issued by Vicana Sugar Company months before Fidel Castro nationalized that company in November 1959. The extent of Mnuchin’s holdings is not known, but include many 1000 share certificates with an original ‘par value’ of $3.00 per share.

Formed in 1935, shares in Vicana Sugar Co. were listed on the New York Stock Exchange and traded as high as $6 per share before Castro’s seizure forced the NYSE to de-list the company’s shares. In January 15, 1959, a large block of stock was purchased by a private investor, whose estate is rumored to have since sold most of those share certificates to a trust controlled by Mnunchin. As reported here previously, Mnuchin had also purportedly acquired a cache Estonia Government bonds issued in the 1940’s that became worthless after Russia’s annexation of Estonia. Those Estonia bond certificates soared in value on eBay last year after rumors of US government efforts to coerce Russia to make good on that defaulted debt and outstanding interest owed to bond holders.

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Vicana Sugar Co 100 Share certificate-Vicana Sugar Co. aka Compania Azucarera Vicana-

A small number of Vicana Sugar Co share certificates, in both 100 share and 1000 share denominations are listed on eBay and offered at upwards of $700 for each certificate. As evidenced by stamp on share certificate in amount of 1000 shares and par value $3.00 each share (see photo).

In November 1959, the company, along with its land assets, was nationalized by the Cuban Government and shareholders suffered a complete loss, as did investors holding shares in other Cuba-based US companies whose assets were nationalized by the new Cuban regime. In the ensuing years, multiple legal claims were brought in US courts—and affirmed in favor of plaintiffs, yet those court judgments provided for no recourse against the Cuban Government. As reported in April 2019, US President Donald Trump approved the lifting of limits on Americans ability to sue over property confiscated by the Fidel Castro government—opening the door to a prospective new round of legal action that can be brought against Cuban government.

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ETF News, Global Macro Strategy, People Profiles

What’s Next? A GOP-Friendly ETF That Tracks Corporate Friends of Trump. OMG!

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GOP-friendly ETF Set to List on BATS BZX; Exchange-Traded Fund with ticker MAGA Will Buy Companies Supportive of Republican Party Agenda

We can’t make this sh*t up..Just when MarketsMuse curators thought we’d seen and heard it all when it comes to new-fangled ETF products, along comes an exchange-traded fund construct that has managed to surprise even our own high-seasoned in-house cynics. The proposed ETF is one with an investment style (or call it a scheme) that is dedicated to “assembling shares in public companies that support the US Republican Party” aka G.O.P. The fund sponsor, Point Bridge Capital of Forth Worth, TX , has dubbed the proposed ETF,  “The Point Bridge GOP Stock Tracker.” Point Bridge execs hope to list the new politically-flavored ETF on the BATS BZX Exchange with the ticker symbol “MAGA” an acronym that stands for the slogan that current US president Donald Trump stole from former President Ronald Reagan i.e. “Make America Great Again.”

point-bridge-capital-GOP-friendly-ETF-lambert
Hal Lambert, Point Bridge Capital

According the Point Bridge Capital website, firm founder Hal Lambert has over 20 years of investment experience and leads investment advisory for the firm. Prior to launching Point Bridge Capital, Lambert was a Director at Credit Suisse advising and managing client assets in excess of $1 billion. He advises pension plans, family offices, foundations, and ultra-high-net-worth individuals.

Before joining Credit Suisse, Hal was a Portfolio Manager at J.P. Morgan, where he headed discretionary portfolio management for the Southwest Region, advising all regional clients – individuals, foundations and endowments – on overall investment strategy. He managed a U.S. Core Equity strategy with total assets under management of over $1 billion, as well as a long/short strategy. After JP Morgan was acquired by Chase, Hal helped open the Denver office and headed discretionary portfolio management for the Mountain Region. .

According to a Wednesday filing last week with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the Point Bridge GOP Stock Tracker ETF will specifically track the performance of an index of stocks meeting the following criteria:

“Companies whose employees and political action committees (PACs) are highly supportive of Republican candidates for election to the United States Congress, the Vice Presidency, or the Presidency and party-affiliated federal committees or groups that are subject to federal campaign contribution limits.”

To select its constituents, the fund’s underlying index starts with an initial universe of S&P 500 companies and then whittles it down based on factors like campaign donations made during recent elections. The fund’s sponsors did not indicate whether the fund will also be short-selling public companies that have been on the receiving end of so-called President Trump’s twitter diatribes. MarketsMuse attempted to contact Point Bridge senior executive Hal Lambert to pose that very question, but unlike Mr. Trump, a Point Bridge spokesperson (or someone who says they are the spokesperson, but refused to provide their name) stated, “We are in a quiet period and any comment would violate the SEC rules.” Maybe they should reach out to the Tweeter-in-Chief and request amnesty from SEC rules??

While this marks the first ETF to specifically track partisan interests, there are plenty of other funds embodying Trump’s political spirit. They include the Global X US Infrastructure Development, which started trading on March 18, and the WisdomTree Global ex-Mexico Equity Fund, which hit the market on February 10.

The Point Bridge GOP ETF has an expected inception date of September 7, according to Bloomberg data.

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Fixed Income, Global Macro Strategy, People Profiles

Fortune CEOs Take Unequivocal Stand; This BD Bids On

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Taking a Unequivocal Stand is Easier for Fortune CEOs than for POTUS–so it seems. Fortune 500 CEOs who have taken exception to erratic and equivocal statements made by the current sitting president of the United States have been systematically subjected to ‘assault by Twitter’ by the country’s CEO-in-Chief. In turn, their company’s share prices have suffered from sell-offs, as investors fear the “wrath of Trump” will extend to federal government actions intended to harm those companies who have failed to heed Mr. Trump’s so-called “lectures.” Attacks and Counter-Attacks via Twitter has become a contact sport, all thanks to “POTUS.”

Within the context of Wall Street firms, “un-biased and conflict-free” are two phrases that agency-only broker-dealers advance on a continuous basis. These phrases connote their conforming to a fiduciary posture that is intended to protect the interests of their client above all else. When it comes to political discourse, most broker-dealers are loathe to insert themselves in a political fracas, yet other BDs are run by folks whose moral compass overrides their need to keep quiet, regardless of the risk that a regulatory agency such as the SEC or FTC (overseen by Congress) will , at the urging of Mr. Trump, exact some type of revenge for challenging the current president. Courtesy of BrokerDealer.com Editorial Section, MarketsMuse editors join those who are taking the high road, and in that effort, we’re re-distributing a piece that profiles a unique broker-dealer’s viewpoint expressed via trading desk commentary and distributed to their Fortune treasury clients and the leading Wall Street ‘book-runners’. We’ll defer to our readers to click on links leading back to the minority broker-dealer in question. Hint-the firm is the oldest minority broker-dealer owned/operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

A Special Editorial from BrokerDealer.com: Most Fortune CEOs, as well as leaders of Investment Banks and Broker-Dealers (aka BD) are typically loathe to take a political stand. For the former, making pronouncements that will raise the ire of the current president are likely to be met by “injury by twitter,” or worse still, federal agency scrutiny of the company, which could prove devastating for public company shareholders. For the universe of corporate leaders with a conscience and also recognized thought-leaders, only a few have yet to prove unequivocal when reacting to the equivocal comment made by President Trump when framing his first view of what US Attorney General Sessions labeled as a”domestic terror event.” We’re referring to the white supremacist rally that led to 3 deaths and multiple injuries in Charlottesville, VA this past weekend.

For investment banks and broker-dealers, let’s face it-politics and business mix best with each other when done over cocktails or discrete ‘off-site’ meetings to discuss new capital market initiatives, deal issuance and/or asset management mandates. After all, most traditional broker-dealers eschew taking a political stand that opposes the federal government administration, simply out of fear that the long lips of the current WH CEO will whisper to administration-appointed SEC bureaucrats with a message akin to ‘the right industry regulator might want to make this [firm] go away..” Most, but not all is the catchphrase that compels a re-distribution of a capital markets desk commentary that focuses on fixed income markets and along with a smidgen of geopolitical observations and delivered to a captive group of leading Fortune 500 corporate treasurers, as well as a select group of sell-side syndicate desk ‘book-runners’.

Sponsored by Prospectus.com. Our team of capital markets experts and securities lawyers specialize in preliminary offering prospectus, secondary offering prospectus and full menu of financial offering memorandum document preparation. More information via this link

Here’s the extract of the day’s piece, titled “Risk On, Risk Off, US-NOKO Tensions Subside; Ugly Heads of Racism Take Top Headline…”

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap – A View About Charlottesville and the Aftermath

Risk was clearly back on in the financial markets today, as U.S./NOKO tensions fell to the wayside.  Unfortunately prejudice and racism reared their ugly heads in the Charlottesville, Virginia riot over the weekend.  On Monday, Fortune 500 thought leaders Ken Frazier, CEO of Merck & C0., Brian Krzanich, CEO of Intel, and Kevin Plank, CEO of Under Armour each took a stand by protesting the ‘equivocal’ comments made by President Trump in his first response to the domestic terrorism acts in Charlottesville, which were advanced by self-proclaimed alt-right and white supremacist neo-Nazis.  Mischler Financial Group  stands with every corporate executive (and every duly-elected or duly-appointed government official) who stays true to genuinely right-minded beliefs and applauds their respective organization’s dedication to doing right by doing good. In case you missed the memo, many of America’s Fortune corporations adhere to this same notion and advance their commitment via proactive Diversity & Inclusion initiatives.

 

For those corporate executives who may have spent all of their undergrad time in finance and accounting classes, and for those who are perhaps not as familiar as they could be i.e. American History (let’s not forget to mention world history, too!), racism and bigotry are diseases that spew hatefulness and cannot be allowed in a free and democratic society. The incendiary and incite-full actions for which the various white supremacist and KKK groups are notorious for, are NOT protected by “First Amendment rights.* These are cancers that cannot be discounted or condoned via equivocal platitudes; simple right-mindedness demands they be eradicated.

(*Think Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr i.e. Schenck v United States and also re-visit Brandenburg v. Ohio)

 

To the above point, one need only re-read the Constitution and the Bill of Rights to appreciate that D&I is part and parcel to our country’s DNA. It is also part of the cultural foundation of many Fortune 500 corporations, including Intel, including Merck, including Under Armour and including many others! D&I infers respect for and appreciation of differences in ethnicity, gender, age, national origin, disability, sexual orientation, education, and religion. But it’s more than this. We all bring with us diverse perspectives, work experiences, life styles and cultures and we presumably all share a disdain for anyone and any group that attempts to dismantle, disrupt and or destroy. Kudos to Mssrs. Frazier, Krzanich and Plank for putting themselves in harm’s way and risk of “injury by Twitter” for being true leaders and staying true to their convictions and their constituents.

 

Kudos also to the many Fortune executives who have raised their own voices to advocate on behalf of right mindedness, and to those corporate executives such as Jamie Dimon, CEO of Citigroup, who have opted not to resign their volunteer roles serving on “Presidential Councils” in protest to seemingly wrong-headed rhetoric. One can hope they have chosen to remain in their roles so that they can be that much more proactive in their WH-appointed roles and/or similar presidential councils in which they serve as volunteers. These are jobs these business leaders have [presumably] accepted to better the country, not to help advance any political platform or political agenda. How the US Secretary of the Treasury or the Director of the National Economic Council can square the so-called ‘equivocal’ views expressed by the CEO-In-Chief vs. their own cultural beliefs will likely be subject to ongoing self-reflection, external speculation and spirited debate. These are smart folks and optimism demands these administration officials be given the benefit of the doubt, just as it is incumbent on any/every corporate leader to serve as role models for employees, customers and clients; just as right-minded parents do for their own children.

 

Today’s VIX closed 3 bps tighter versus Friday’s close. Also a reminder that tomorrow is August 15th – “mid-August” – that’s when North Korea’s illustrious “bad boy” proclaimed that he’d have his master plan ready to bomb Guam developed by.  One week from today on Monday, August 21st begin joint U.S-South Korean military exercises referred to as Ulchi-Freedom Guardian. The exercise began in our Bicentennial year of 1976. North Korea has annually perceived the joint exercise as “preparation for war.” It is the world’s largest computerized command control implementation. Up to 80,000 American and South Korean troops have participated in this exercise in the recent past.  The game will go on for two weeks before concluding on Thursday August 31st.  Enjoy the show Mr. Jong-Un. You’ll have front row seats though I recommend binoculars. Here’s lookin’ at you kid!  To continue reading the day’s debt market commentary, click here

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Global Macro Strategy, People Profiles

Circus Comes To Town-Global Macro Guru Heads to Hofstra

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MarketsMuse inhouse political pundits are headed to Hempstead, NY, home of Hofstra University where the Circus Comes to Town disguised as the first tranche of 2016 US Presidential debates. While our inhouse politicos battle the LIE rush hour traffic in effort to get a ring-side seat for the Ringling Bros Bake-Off circus, our curators pass the ball for pre-debate color courtesy of global macro guru Neil Azous, principal of macro think tank Rareview Macro and publisher of Sight Beyond Sight.  Below extract first appeared in yesterday’s weekend edition of FinAlternatives.com

 

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Neil Azous, Rareview Macro

Humble in Hofstra…One Debate an Election Can Make
by Neil Azous

Tonight’s U.S. Presidential debate, infamously coined the “Humbling in Hofstra” by Mark Cuban, has the potential to reshape the world. Unlike the adage “one stock a market does not make,” our view is that “one debate an election can make.”

At the top-down investment level, this event will dictate asset prices over the next 72 hours more than any other catalyst. For the reasons we will layout below, our bias is to be short risk assets or hedged going into the event.

Additionally, the event will kick-off a greater rebalancing exercise at the sector, industry, and single stock level which might take a few weeks to find an equilibrium.

The Debate Setup

Firstly, this is an advertiser’s dream as over 100 million people are expected to tune in, the largest ever for a US Presidential debate.

The debate will run from 9 to 10:30 p.m. ET at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York.

Baby Boomers, Generation X, and Generation Y, can watch the debate on C-SPAN, Fox, ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC.

It will also be streamed live on various social networks. That way, the millennials who cut-the-cord from networks have an opportunity to follow along as well.

Secondly, it is important to recognize the extreme view that non-US citizens take on Donald. J. Trump. They view Trump in a similar vein as the Dear Leader in North Korea – that is, highly concerned over the prospects of his ascent on the world stage and having access to weapons of mass destruction.

The key point here is that if there is going to be a change in viewpoints on Trump, it will be for the better, as it cannot get much worse internationally.

Finally, the political strategists, already bruised from being wrong on Trump for 18 months, are struggling to pinpoint what a win or loss looks like for either candidate in advance of tomorrow night’s debate.

As evidenced by the widespread views expressed on the various Sunday morning talk shows this morning, they are all soul-searching at the moment.

The conclusion, especially after a surprise ‘Brexit’ outcome, is that paid forecasters, political strategists, media persona, and politicians are worthless in shaping sentiment and helping investors construct their portfolios.

Our View

Allow us to put one simple view forward.

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