Mega Millions Winner’s ETF Model Portfolio Reply

The “ETF Professor” over at Benzinga has already constructed his ETF portfolio in advance of winning the now, $640 million jackpot scheduled for drawing tonight.  The model portfolio comprises a nice mix representing energy, gold, emerging market, consumer staples, high yield bonds, blah blah blah…

Here’s the verbatim extract courtesy of Benzinga On Line:

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]) The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR is of course low-beta and almost downright boring in the world of sector ETFs, but just because one has $360 million to play with doesn’t mean that they should be taking on excessive risk. At least one of your new ETF positions should be something for the long-term and something that won’t cause lost sleep at night.

A stake in XLP would make your grandad and Warren Buffett proud. Rounding up a bit, 1 million shares of XLP would run about $34 million, leaving the Mega Millions winner with $325 million, some of which can be devoted to the…

WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund (NYSE: DEM) Of course some of the winnings should go to an emerging markets fund, but we can do better than standard fare such s the Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: VWO). There’s a lot to like with DEM, including a yield approaching 4% and that the fund is up 12% year-to-date, just be advised Brazil and Taiwan account for over 43% of the fund’s country allocation.

Exotic ETFs Going Mainstream Reply

Leveraged and inverse exchange-traded funds received a lot of scrutiny during the volatility of last year. But now that volatility is down and equities are on the rise, investors are more and more viewing these once exotic products as just another way to take positions on the direction of the markets.

That was the opinion of ETF insiders speaking on the panel “Volatility and Leveraged ETFs” at the Security Traders Association of New York conference on Thursday. ETFs that are leveraged two, three times, or even more, or that move in an inverse relationship to indexes like the S&P 500, are slowly becoming more accepted.

Stephen Sachs, head of capital markets for ProShares, said that while ETFs drew a lot of attention during high-volatility periods last year, the actual evidence suggests those instruments did not cause the volatility. Leveraged and inverse products were only a small part of trading during those periods, and important macro events were also very much in play, he said.

“At the end of the day, volatility is not an asset,” Sachs said. He added that unlike actual asset classes, investors don’t take buy and hold positions on the VIX. Investors in VIX ETFs need to understand that the product exists for taking positions on risk, not for long-term investments.

Chris Hempstead, director of ETF execution at WallachBeth Capital, said inverse and leveraged products have gotten more than their fair share of press. However, they too serve a specific purpose, and the investment community needs to learn more about them.  ”If you trade anything, you should be paying attention to the ETF market,” Hempstead said. “It [the market] is a lot harder [to understand] than it was five years ago.” More…

FINRA Investigating ETNs after Credit Suisse’s TVIX ‘Snafu’ Reply

The regulator that oversees the sale of investment products to investors is investigating how firms are marketing exchange-traded notes, a niche product that experienced a market meltdown this year.

A spokeswoman for the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority said Thursday the regulator is “looking at the events and trading” activity surrounding a sharp plunge in the price of an exchange-traded note designed to track stock market volatility.

FINRA began its inquiry after the Credit Suisse-managed VelocityShares Daily 2x Short-Term exchange-traded note, or ETN, lost half its value in just two days earlier this month.

But FINRA’s review is not limited to the volatility ETN, the spokeswoman said. “We have a review underway looking at a host of issues relating to ETNs and other complex products,” the spokeswoman said.

Exchange-traded notes are debt securities issued by banks and were first brought to market in 2006 as a way for sophisticated traders to make bets on different parts of the market.

But recently, retail investors have begun trading ETNs as one way to get exposure to popular sectors of the market like silver, gold and natural gas.

To be sure, the dollar value of ETNs is small, roughly $18 billion. The volatility ETN managed by Credit Suisse, for instance, had about $700 million in assets at its peak. By contrast, the dollar value of better-known exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, is $1.2 trillion.

European Institutions Adding ETFs Reply

 

European institutional investors primarily use exchange-traded products as beta tools or to implement asset allocation strategies, with few investors seeing demand for active ETFs, according to an EDHEC-Risk Institute survey released Tuesday.

About 70% of the 174 European institutional managers and private wealth managers who responded to the survey said they primarily use ETFs to gain broad market exposures. About 56% use ETFs for buy-and-hold investments, while 54% use ETFs to gain short-term or dynamic asset allocation exposures.

“There is an increasing demand for short-term dynamic strategies and subsegment exposures,” according to EDHEC’s European ETF Survey 2011, which was conducted from June through August and is also supported by Amundi ETF, an ETF manager. About 74% of the respondents were institutional money managers.

Separately, about 77% said ETFs should remain beta-replicating products and only 11% believed more active ETFs are needed. About 39% would like to see more ETFs that track niche markets.

Emerging markets equity and bonds were in demand, “which may be somewhat related to the recognition that many of the sovereign debt problems investors face in developed markets can be somewhat mitigated by emerging markets bond investments,” according to survey’s accompanying report. Other types of ETFs on the wish list include volatility, commodity and high-yield bond ETFs.

“Investors expect to use ETFs more for portfolio optimization and risk-management strategies,” according to the report of the survey.

In Europe, ETF assets under management totaled about $273.5 billion at the end of 2011, with about 90% being used by institutions, according to data from BlackRock and EDHEC.

ETFs & Obamacare: The Broccoli ETF Reply

“If Congress can force me to buy health insurance, can it also force me to eat broccoli?”…

That question, according to WallachBeth Capital’s Chris Hempstead, is one that he can’t answer, but Hempstead does have a sharp-as-a-scalpel perspective re: the ETFs to put under a microscope as the US Supreme Court is scheduled to perform surgery on President Obama’s healthcare initiative:

IHF: IShares DJ US Healthcare Providers (77% Healthcare Services and 17% Pharma)

Year to date the IHF fund is +11.6% and since Obamacare passed +24% versus SPX of 12.6% and 20% respectively.

PTH: PowerShares Dynamic Healthcare Sector (25% Pharma, 25% Healthcare Products, 24% Healthcare Services and 14% Biotech)

YTD the PTH fund is +12.6% (SPX 12.6%) and since Obamacare +28% (SPX 20%).

FXH: First Trust Health Care AlphaDEX (30% Pharma, 30% Healthcare Services, 24% Healthcare Products and 12% Biotech)

YTD the FXH fund is +13% (SPX 12.6%) and since Obamacare +29% (SPX 20%).

YTD  XLV is +7.9% (SPX 12.6%) and since Obamacare +16% (SPX 20%).  XLV has an expense ratio of .18%.

 

TVIX: Case Study ETNs & ETFs to be Wary Of- Reply

Credit Suisse’s volatility-flavored ETN,  the VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN, aka “TVIX” is, for lack of a better phrase, broken.  And it ‘got broken’ in mid Feb when CS halted the creation process for this product.

Observed Chris Hempstead, the head of ETF trading for WallachBeth Capital, “the halt in the creation process caused the product to trade at an unnatural premium–as much as 80%– to the underlying NAV since the creation halt announcement was made.  For more than a month, hedge fund traders have been attempting to arbitrage the dislocation in pricing-and more than a few had based their strategies on the premise the creation process would not be resumed.  “

Credit Suisse threw a fly into that ointment on Thursday night, when the firm announced it was re-opening the issuance of new units and, as Hempstead pointed out in desk notes to clients of his firm late Thursday night, “you can expect TVIX premiums to NAV to evaporate significantly, if not entirely when trading re-opens.”

Are there other products that display the same  unusual premium to NAV ‘features’?. Hempstead suggests that hedge fund traders who are dabbling in volatility-flavored products should take a second look at Market Vectors China ETF (PEK)  as well as ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short:  UVXY More…

Markdown in MuniBond ETFs: Discount Pricing Reply

ETF Trends’ Tom Lydon makes a poignant observation when pointing out that MUB , iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund ETF is continuing to trade at a discount to its NAV, which for some, is a disturbing bearish signal.

While ETF “discount trading” is not necessarily unusual in and of itself, prolonged disparities (i.e. for more than a brief snapshot in time) often infers a bearish sentiment.  When counting the growing number of municipalities raising their hands for more help and the loom of local financial crisis episodes remains large, its no wonder that the bears are growling.

That said, Ron Quigley, head of fixed income syndicate for Mischler Financial Group was alone last week when he said:        “.. The Federal Reserve Bank said today they’d leave rates at “current low levels through 2014” which simply means that as the economy grows and inflationary fears increase, the long end of the curve will rise.  A steeper yield curve will expedite the process by which the banking system recapitalizes, thus encouraging banks to deploy their excess capital and profits into even more SMEs and consumer lending to fuel more growth

Whichever economic analyst camp you prefer to reside in, MUB’s technical chart is decidedly bearish at the moment. Click on the image to read Tom Lydon’s perspective.

Chart Courtesy of ETF Trends

Conflict-Of-Interest Charges Roil Bankers-What About Those “Step-Out” Ticket Charges? Reply

Fast on the heels of that New York Times op-ed by a former GoldmanSachs derivatives trader, who in a public farewell tribute to the employer he had just “fired” (claiming said employer caused both the culture and very corpuscles of the firm’s ecosystem to become polluted with the toxic virus “Conflicts-of-Interest Syndrome”),  another, and potentially more blistering conflict-of-interest issue is beginning to bubble.

Before revealing the team logo(s) associated with the latest event,  its important to first look at the update to the saga of the former Goldman trader–who is now actively shopping a new order–for a soon-to-be-written tell all.

In statements released to the press, Goldman, as well as Morgan Stanley have publicly proclaimed the same-sounding, back-handed response re: the Op-Ed author’s revelations regarding conflicts of interest on Wall Street:  The respective bulge bracket PR statements read pretty much like this: “..In connection with ongoing compliance procedures, [our] investment banking unit will be doing a full review of all conflict of interest policies as they pertain to the firm’s internal guidelines, as well as any/all regulatory guidelines.”

Given the compression of the investment banking industry over the past 5 years, its almost impossible to envision that any IB deal administered by any of the few remaining Wall Street banks could be done without some kind of conflict, someplace!

Now to the new shoe that may about to drop, its aimed at the heart of  administrative epicenter for the $3.5 trillion investment advisory space:

According to one agnostic brokerage industry expert (who chooses to remain anonymous because his/her life insurance policy is capped at $1million), those concerned about conflict of interest might be more concerned about a  different conflict: the one that could embroil the $3.4 Trillion (that’s trillion with a “T”)  investment advisory space, which to a great extent, is administered by four or five large, and several smaller “custodians”, whose services typically include reporting, back office administration and trade execution.

Some believe custodians may be reaping  “tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars in “preference payments” from Wall Street bank trading and “facilitation desks”, in consideration for directing their client orders to those bank trading desks for execution.

In the vast majority of those cases, those trading desks may not actually be providing the best price available in the market, and are also betting against the custodian’s customer, if only for a brief moment in time, to hopefully profit from those bets.  Let us not forget to caveat the important part of the claim: the clients are not receiving any portion of the payments made to their custodian, as the payments may not necessarily be in the form of cash.

The “payment-for-order flow” topic, and more poignantly, the imposition of usurious “step-out fees”  on clients who would rather “trade-away” from their custodian and secure best execution via “agency-only” brokers is an issue that has occasionally sprouted up across the Industry in the form of small brush fires, but most have been quickly extinguished by those having an agenda to brush the issue under the table.

Times may be changing.

Once commission-centric, custodians have since given up the brokerage industry’s race to zero by competing for institutional (and retail) customer in the form of cheaper trading commissions. Instead, fees for execution, research, and other fungible services,  are now based on assets under management, enabling the custodians to to perform a sleight of hand and promote this new message: “Trade commission free, all fees are fixed based on AUM.”

Nothing is free, other than maybe air. According to some, the more recent conflict-of-issue narrative is creating sparks that could turn into a barn-burner–especially for very, very short list of Tier 1 custodians who dominate the hosting of the aforementioned $3.4 trillion in assets; assets managed by RIAs and institutional managers who in turn, actively manage tens of thousands of end-customer sub-accounts via the buying and selling of of single stocks, ETFs, listed options and fixed income products.

Some insist they know, while many others can only suspect, that certain custodians are enhancing their revenue streams at the expense of their own clients, who are otherwise handcuffed to the custodians’ order execution desk.

The handcuff is in form of  “step-out ticket charges”, a fee similar to a ‘corking charge’ that you might be subject to when bringing in your own bottle of wine to the restaurant that you are dinging at. These ticket charges, which range from $15-$25, are  imposed on each sub-account when the custodian’s client wants their order executed “away” by any “agency-0nly”  firm who  specializes  in seeking out the most competitive price, or best execution in that particular asset class.

To illustrate: Joe RIA intends to purchase a block of 50,000 shares of EMG-ETF on behalf of his 100 clients. After execution, he will pro-rate 500 shares to each of the 100 client sub-accounts that Joe RIA manages.  When Joe executes through “Clark His Custodian”, there is no commission charged on the trade, and no ticket fees imposed to allocate to sub-accounts managed by Joe and held in custody by Clark . Great deal, right?

If you missed the (*) asterix that pointed to the small print in your clearing agreement,  “If you want to step-out your order to a third party broker in an effort to secure a better price execution, please note: you will be subject to a fee of $15-$25 for every sub-account that you want your block trade allocated to.”

This is where the burning rubber meets the road: When Joe RIA discovers he can execute the 50,000 shares 5 cents ‘better’ via a third-party broker (a savings of $2500 that goes directly to Joe’s Alpha), Joe also discovers that he’s subject to a $25 ticket charges per account,  wiping out the cost savings that Joe could have captured for his clients.

Executing at a ‘better price’ is actually not that hard accomplish for seasoned execution experts in the course of trading a majority of ETF products (or other products, such as  option spreads)–especially those who take a systematic approach to canvassing a broad assortment of liquidity providers.  Clark the Custodian has no incentive to spend time/effort to canvass the market. His only obligation is to deliver prices back to his clearing customer within the context of the NBBO.

Its a strange story, for sure. Something is certainly amiss when it costs “nothing” to execute “in-house”, but if you go out of house for a better price execution, you find yourself in the proverbial out-house,  without any TP.

Stay tuned.

High Yield Junk Bond ETFs-Eye On Distortions Reply

It appears that our comments re:  junk bond ETFs over the past 6 weeks has inspired main stream media, and in particular, WSJ’s Jason Zweig, to zero in on a talking point raised here last month: the logistics by which certain ETFs are ‘created’ and redeemed, and the potential distortion in prices between the underlying junk held by high yield bond ETFs, and comparable  junk issues that are not components to the most popular high yield bond ETFs. More…

Glass Half Full of Apple (AAPL) Juice : ETF Observation Reply

We took the liberty of scraping an interesting note from this a.m.’s  Notes from the WallachBeth ETF Desk :

“…On to Apple: Today will sure set a new tone and a new era for Apple lovers and haters; the iPad 3 (aka iPad) has been released, praised and torn down. The company is announcing a dividend and share buyback program. This is what we know.  I am a big fan of Apple products and culture, and while that typically keeps me from being bearish on the stock , here is what you may not know, or, may not be paying attention to:  the overwhelming success of AAPL could lead to a short term bearish event in the stock: a special rebalance.

AAPL is currently >18.5% of the weight in NDX. If that weight goes over 24%, a special NDX rebalance could be triggered. Additionally, if the sum weight of all members with a weight over 4.5% is greater than 48% [currently ~42.5%], a special rebalance could be triggered. So, while each event in itself has a certain probability, we could be only one member away from reaching the threshold.

If you had to set alerts on your monitor, I would set them for those three and watch their weights. ..”

Chris Hempstead, Head of ETF Trading, WallachBeth Capital