Tag Archives: $NVS

Breaking News: The Black Swan from Switzerland: A Macro View and the ETF Angle

Marketsmuse.com update profiling Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowering of deposit rate to a -0.75% has, as noted by Neil Azous of global macro think Rareview Macro LLC,  “shocked the markets” and “will be booked into the Black Swan record books as an event to be remembered. ” Below update starts with extract from late morning edition of Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight” and followed by the ETF angle, courtesy of late morning summary from ETFtrends.com

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro

Historic Day for Global Investors…Impact Will Be Felt for Weeks to Come

  • Model Portfolio – Update
    Can You Trade Swiss Franc?
    Commodities – Quick Thoughts
    Big Picture – Asset Allocation

 

This morning, in a move that shocked the markets, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) removed its minimum exchange rate policy of holding the Euro-Swiss (EUR/CHF) at 1.20, lowered its deposit rate to -0.75% from -0.30%, and their target LIBOR rate to between -1.25% and -0.25%. The main reason offered by the SNB for its decision was the strength of the US Dollar and the diverging monetary policy between regions.

As a reminder, the SNB had a regularly scheduled meeting on December 11th where no changes to policy were made, just a reiteration that it remained steadfast in its commitment to the EUR/CHF 1.20 floor. On December 18th, largely as a result of very strong safe-haven inflow from Russia, the SNB surprised the market and reduced its deposit rate to -0.30% from -0.05%, surpassing the European Central Bank’s (ECB) which set its deposit rate at -0.25%. Two days ago the SNB’s vice-chairman said that the bank “are convinced that the minimum exchange rate must remain the cornerstone of our monetary policy”. In other words, there was no warning of this.

Since the EUR/CHF 1.20 floor was introduced a few years back the market sentiment was firm in that if the floor was to ever break then the initial downside risk was 1.15-1.10 at a maximum.

The Electronic Broking Services (EBS), the benchmark for professional FX trading, said the market low for the EUR/CHF on its platform was 0.8500 Francs per Euro and confirmed the “miss-hit” at 0.0015.

THAT MEANS NO ONE GOT STOPPED OUT OF THEIR LONG EUR/CHF POSITION ABOVE 1.0000!

This is not the commodities market, where traders place stop-limit orders and wait for a product to bounce back before being taken out of their position due to illiquidity. It is FX where stop-loss orders are predominantly used and you are taken out at the level at which the market first traded.

Therefore, today will go down in history as a “Black Swan” event. Continue reading

Healthcare ETFs–Free Prescriptions Here…

seekingalphalogobenzinga-logo   Courtesy of “The ETF Professor”–his work appears courtesy of Benzinga.com, and is also re-distributed through leading publishers

Conservative investors and risk-takers alike have been rewarded for owning U.S. health care stocks and ETFs focusing on those names in recent years.

The data supports that assertion. A look at three major health care ETFs, all of which do things a little bit differently, shows significant out-performance of the S&P 500 over various time frames.

For example, the Health Care Select SPDR (NYSE: XLV) is up 30.3 percent in the past five years compared to 12.3 percent for the S&P 500.

Since December 2011 when it became a Market Vectors fund, Market Vectors Pharmaceutical ETF is up almost 20 percent. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ: IBB) has nearly doubled in the past five years.

Bottom line: Investors have done well when staying at home with U.S. health care stocks, but that does not mean there are not global opportunities worth considering. After all, some of the biggest health care companies in the world are not U.S. firms.

France’s Sanofi (NYSE: SNY) and Israel’s Teva Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: TEVA) stand as just two examples.

Here is a look at some international developed market health care ETFs to see if going global with this sector is a better idea than staying domestic.

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/02/3357973/are-global-health-care-etfs-worth-prescribing#ixzz2LfCheYiO