Tag Archives: gaza

Global Macro Strategy

Trump: Liar Liar Pants on Fire

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Since President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, fact-checkers have documented a substantial number of false or misleading statements made by him in public speeches, interviews, and official addresses. While an exact count is challenging due to the volume and frequency of these statements, several notable instances highlight this pattern:​

  • Inauguration Day Remarks: During his inaugural address and subsequent statements on January 20, 2025, fact-checkers identified multiple false and misleading claims, many of which were repetitions from his campaign. ​Wikipedia
  • January 28 During a signing ceremony Wednesday for the Laken Riley Act, President Donald Trump claimed that his administration had “identified and stopped $50 million being sent to Gaza to buy condoms for Hamas.”
  • Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, made a similar claim on Tuesday during her debut press briefing, stating that the Department of Government Efficiency and the Office of Management and Budget “found that there was about to be $100 million taxpayer dollars that went out the door to fund condoms in Gaza.” She called the alleged aid “a preposterous waste of taxpayer money.” But there’s no credible evidence to support these claims. Except there weren’t 3.3 billion condoms. What condoms there were weren’t for Hamas. And even those didn’t go to the Gaza Strip.They went here to Gaza Province, Mozambique, where residents are surprised that the world’s most-powerful man mixed up the two Gazas and won’t admit he is wrong.
  • Address to Congress: On March 4, 2025, in his address to a joint session of Congress, President Trump made several inaccurate claims. For example, he falsely stated that “millions of centenarians were receiving Social Security benefits”, a claim instigated by Elon Musk and stemming from outdated software and incomplete records. ​AP News+1Wikipedia+1
  • Mar-a-Lago News Conference: In a news conference held on August 8, 2024, NPR reported that President Trump made at least 162 misstatements, exaggerations, and outright lies in a 64-minute span. ​Wikipedia

These examples illustrate a consistent pattern of misinformation and exaggeration in President Trump’s public communications during his second term. For ongoing and detailed analyses, resources like PolitiFact, FactCheck.org, and The Washington Post’s Fact Checker provide comprehensive fact-checking of political figures, including President Trump.​

Global Macro Strategy

Macro-Strategist Speaks Out Re Summer Sleepiness?: A Rareview with Sight Beyond Sight

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Below extract courtesy of this a.m. edition of Rareview Macro LLC’s daily publication “Sight Beyond Sight”

Editor Note: Performance Speaks Louder Than Words, and the SBS model portfolio as of Aug 15 is a noteworthy +3.72% YTD (and 0.33% WTD) when compared to the universe of macro strategists who, according to news media, have been struggling (whether because of mis-timed moves, over-reaction to events, or completely missing the geo-political mark)

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Many in the professional community have rebalanced their long positioning out of Europe or remain short on it against another region. The underbelly of the macro strategy is very weak and many are forgetting that unless the inflation metrics really weaken from here, there are multiple steps that will need to be taken before full-scale European style QE can be introduced. That means part of the recent spread compression, where investors bought on the view QE was imminent, needs to come out of the market. The same can be absolutely argued about Gold, since the backdrop of relative peace and the traditional correlation of the metal to Brent Crude Oil should bring the price down.

Interestingly, this de-escalation of risk is not a result of diplomacy by any party to the Ukraine or Iraq conflicts. Instead, it is the result of ongoing military progress on both regions. Continue reading →