Tag Archives: black gold

Turm- Oil: Black Gold Turns to More than 50 Shades of Gray for High Yield Bond ETFs

MarketsMuse update on the downtick in oil prices and impact on high yield bond ETFs, including energy-sectory junk bonds includes extract from Institutional Investor Jan 7 coverage by Andrew Barber.

MarketsMuse editor note: The recent implosion of crude oil prices has triggered a conundrum for almost every investment analyst who prides themself on pontificating the domino effect impact on the broad universe of market sectors and asset classes. Much has been said about the how, when and where the trickle-down effect of the lower oil prices will effect corporate balance sheets, and in particular, those with a boatload of outstanding debt.  For high-grade corporate debt issuers, some believe lower energy costs bode will. For high yield bond issuers (companies that typically include energy industry players), the jury remains out for the most part. Experts that MarketsMuse has spoken with believe that if US drillers and frakers cut back on operations and reduce overhead quickly, it will help stem the burn that inevitably results from manufacturing a product that costs almost as much (if not more) to make as it what customers pay for it. Then again, as the supply begins to wane consequent to production cutbacks, market forces will, in theory, cause prices to rise..and those companies will be back in the black before having to sweat too much about interest payments on outstanding debt.

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II’s coverage on the topic is framed nicely via this extract:

mcormond jan15 The impact of rising yield for energy producers on high yield markets has also spilled over into the exchange-traded funds and closed-end funds. “ETFs create a simple wrapper for investors to modify easily their exposure to high yield fixed income markets” says Andy McOrmond, managing director at WallachBeth Capital, a New York-based institutional brokerage that focuses on ETF and portfolio trading. Mohit Bajaj, director of ETF trading solutions, also at WallachBeth, notes that despite the volatility injected into the market for high-yield exchanged-traded products during the recent oil sell-off, short interest has remained relatively stable and borrows have been easily obtainable. Bajaj attritubes this stability to a maturing institutional appreciation of exchange-traded fund products.

 

For the full article from II, please click here

 

Black Gold v. Yellow Metal: Macro-Strategy Perspective

As if it were a segment in “Orange is the New Black,” the price correlation between Crude Oil (aka Black Gold) and the Yellow Metal continues to swing like a chandelier in a windy mansion. Below extract courtesy of Neil Azous, from today’s a.m. edition of Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight summarizes the current correlation in a crisp way…

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

There are two assets being watched closely right now – Brent Crude Oil and the Euro Exchange Rate.

Firstly, Brent Crude Oil is showing the largest negative risk-adjusted return in Commodities. This morning, the “barrel” has broken through yesterday’s low and overall has now retraced over 50% of the Iraq/ISIS move higher seen in June. Below is a regression analysis between Brent Crude Oil and Gold for three time periods related to Iraq/ISIS: Before, Height, and Current.

Gold was trading at its lower point on June 2nd and the correlation (i.e. red asterisk on chart) to Brent Crude Oil was negative. On June 19th, the correlation was the most positive when Brent Crude Oil was at its highest level. Today, the correlation is on the cusp of swinging back to negative territory. We highlight this because the same pattern has been seen before, with the height on March 14th and after the Ukraine-Russia crisis. And what happened next? Gold dropped by -10% over the next 45 days.

By the way, it was reported that assets in the SPDR Gold Trust (symbol: GLD) rose +1.4% to 796.39 metric tons in the two sessions through yesterday. To put that in context, that is the largest two-day gain since November 2011 and it is just one example of the new found retail length in Gold. The other was in CFTC futures positioning which professionals use to gain exposure. Continue reading