In what might (or not) be viewed as a ‘stunning reversal’, yet otherwise a [brief] sigh of relief for US Equities investors, Current US President Donald Pump & Dump Trump reversed himself yet again this weekend, and raised a flag of surrender after he was told by advisors that Chinese President Xi is the one who holds the Mah Jong cards. After claiming that he made a “great deal” by tabling tariffs on China for ninety-days, US equities markets surged today, and re-claimed levels not seen since Trump doubled-down on his saber-rattling during the second week of March.

Whether the discussions this weekend between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his Chinese counterparts included any disclosure as to whether the CCP has a full, un-redacted copy of the infamous Jeffrey Epstein files remains to be seen. Whether Secretary of Commerce Howard ButtLick had advance notice of Trump’s plan to surrender is also uncertain, despite a rumoured whistle-blower’s claim that Cantor Fitzgerald, the brokerage firm owned by ButtLlick and currently operated by his 20-something year old sons, had purchased 20,000 $SPY options late Friday afternoon before the market closed.

What is hard to argue is that China President Xi has always kept Sun Tzu’s “Art of War” by his bedside, while his American counterpart is believed to remain fixated on his ghost-written book, “The Art of the Deal”, and according to Trump’s since-deceased first wife, his other favorite bedside book was Mein Kampf.

So, for the time being, US Equities investors, along with US Corporate CEOs and CFOs are breathing a sigh of relief after weeks of hand-wringing as to the chaos and calamity that Trump has rained down on the prospects for the US Economy and US Consumer Confidence.

Let’s reflect back one week ago, when Trump insisted “This is Joe Biden’s Stock Market!”, or go back to merely five weeks ago when the ‘smartest Wall Street strategists’ had revised their 2025 year-end outlooks down by as much as 20% since their respective beginning of year forecasts. Now consider that $SPX is (as of this writing) well above levels predicted by more than half of the pundits. And, we still have seven months remaining in the year! Kudos to Evercore’s Julian Emanuel for being a savant by predicting “We could go as low as $SPX $3200, or as high as $6200-$6500.” And only five weeks ago, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said “We are likely to go down to $SPY $4000, if not $3200!”

• Jefferies: Downgrades its S&P 500 estimate to 5,300 points (from 6,000), warning about stagflation risks.
• J.P. Morgan: Lowers its target to 5,200 points, the most conservative among major firms.
• Goldman Sachs: Reduces its forecast from 6,500 to 6,200 points due to political uncertainty and lower expected growth.
• Bank of America: Adjusts its target to 5,600 points, aligning with a moderate cooling scenario.
• Evercore: Cuts its projection to 5,600 points, reflecting a defensive approach.
• Oppenheimer: Lowers its estimate to 5,950 points, a 16% cut from its previous forecast.
• Deutsche Bank: Maintains its optimistic view with a target of 7,000 points by year-end.

Is the Bull Market Back, and are we out of the woods?

We know one thing, Retail Investors Have Made Monkeys Out of Institutional Investors this year, continuing a pattern that has been in place for several years.

Taking the pulse of technical analysts is fool’s errand, if not a fatal exercise, given that ‘charts’ merely reflect historical patterns, not future actions. Some claim to have presciently predicted the rally of the past weeks, and include those who maintain this 20% recovery from the April lows is a classic, if not violent, ‘bear market rally.’ Others are expecting the “Wall Street Genius Crowd” to follow the path of Deutsche Bank’s unwavering bullish view throughout, and will be issuing revised year-end 2025 forecasts for the fourth time in four months within a few days to now predict we surge well beyond early January’s ATHs.

This veteran market observer is self-aware enough to be as perplexed as could be, yet now that CNN Greed-Fear Index has tilted 180 degrees to GREED from Extreme Fear readings, and now that $VIX is back under $20 after teetering for weeks between $24-$32 (while the VIX futures calendar spreads have been continuously ‘inverted’ and now back to premiums), one could speculate that the recent historic recovery in US stock prices might be reaching a near-term top. Or, we could march much higher. Toss a coin.

Said a different way, we have no fucking idea, and those who want to postulate are free to do so. We do know one thing, the MAGA Merchants of Mayhem, led by their King, will continue to assert their self-proclaimed privaleges to deny anyone else of their rights, the Trump Crime Family will continue to perpetrate conflict of financial interest escapades (that pale in comparison to the charges GOP members made about Hunter Biden), bold-faced lies and preposterous propaganda will continue to be spewed by the current regime, and the syncophants will continue to help steer the ship of fools that is captained by someone who should be certified as plain fucking crazy.