MarketsMuse fixed income fix for Feb 5 is courtesy of Industry Veteran and debt capital markets guru Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate for Mischler Financial Group, the sell-side’s first and foremost investment bank/institutional brokerage boutique that is owned and operated by service-disabled veterans. Mr. Quigley is also the author of “Quigley’s Corner”, a daily debt capital market commentary distributed to 1000+ Fortune treasurers, investment managers and public plan sponsors. Mischler Financial Group is the winner of the 5th Annual Wall Street Letter Award for “Best Broker-Dealer/Research”
The Guy-in-the-Corner’s Take on Interest Rates (Feb 4 Quigley’s Corner)
So, I was asked by a Senior Managing Editor of an anonymous multi-billion dollar global financial news operation for my thoughts on interest rates. When I began my response to him, it just seemed to continue as there are so many factors that influence that discussion. My response turned out to be a feature unto itself so without further ado, I thought I’d feature it in today’s “QC.”
As concerns your question about how recent jumbo deals (think “Apple”) have raised speculation of interest rates rising, there is a POV out there claiming issuers are quick to print in anticipation of higher rate action. I, however, lean the other way…….FAR the other way and here’s why:
I have always been a proponent of “lower-for-longer”. Yellen added language in her last minutes flagging the EU as a potential impact on keeping U.S. rates lower. In the prior minutes, she didn’t mention the EU at all (which I thought was egregious not to at least mention the worst and most impactful economic story on our planet).
o On any given day a slew of news would be headliners in their own right. Aside from MENA unrest and the dramatic ISIS killings and impact in the world’s most sensitive hotbed – MENA – there are myriad factors that can all impact our rate environment:
o The Swiss National Bank’s action to remove its cap with the euro is a red flag or bad sign to the markets. It means the Swiss (unknown for surprises and bastions of stability) do not like what they see in on the horizon for for the EU. Did someone say “currency wars?” Remember history and NEVER forget it. We are dealing with severe currency volatility between the USD, EURO, YEN et al. These are reminders of the economic dislocation circa the 1930s……and we know what that led to. Continue reading