Tag Archives: $DAX

ETF News, Fixed Income, Global Macro Strategy

Global Macro Strategy: Get Short-y

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MarketsMuse global macro strategy insight courtesy of extract from today’s a.m. edition of Rareview Macro LLC’s “Sight Beyond Sight”, which includes references to the following ETFs: EMB, HYG and LQD.. For those already subscribing to “SBS”, you already know that this market strategist incorporates a cross-asset model portfolio that has outperformed a significant number of those who oversee billions of dollars on behalf of the world’s most demanding investors.

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro

New Tactical Trade – Short German DAX…Model Portfolio -33% Net Short Equities

US Dollar Input – Not Just “Patient” and “QECB” but also Balance Sheet Management

Credit – Watch EMB, HYG, LQD Today

Model Portfolio Update – March 6, 2015 COB:  +1.04% WTD, +0.89% MTD, 0.00% YTD

This morning, in the model portfolio we sold short the German DAX. Specifically, we sold 200 GXH5 (DAX Mar15) at 11485. This is a short term directional trade. The notional equates to 20% of the NAV. The update was sent in real-time via Twitter.

All in, between the S&P 500 and DAX, the model portfolio is approximately-33% net short equities. To put it in simple terms, there is an opportunity right now to short the market. Why? Because, either the FOMC Committee blinks, and you get paid until they do, or they do not blink and you get paid as risk assets discount further interest rate normalization. Either way, your short position will make you money.

Here is the best way to describe our sentiment at the moment: Continue reading →

ETF News

German ETFs Offer Good Opportunities in Rebounding European Market

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MarketMuse update is courtesy of ETF Trends’ Todd Shriber.

Earlier this week and over the past few months, MarketMuse has been covering the rocky European market, thanks to Greece, and its recent rebound, with ETF $GVAL. Now investors have even more to be excited about with the recent success of German ETFs. 

The U.S. is not the only developed market where stocks are eying record highs. Germany’s benchmark DAX accomplished that feat Friday, climbing above 11,000 for the first time.

Exchange traded fund investors are responding, pumping massive of amounts of capital into Germany ETFs. The Recon Capital DAX Germany ETF (NasdaqGM:DAX), the only U.S.-listed DAX-tracking ETF, is up nearly 8% in the past month.

With its heavy tilt toward large, multi-national companies, the DAX index is benefiting from a depreciating euro currency. A weaker euro would help support export growth and potentially generate greater revenue from overseas operations for the multi-nationals.

A weak euro and sturdy data out of the Eurozone’s largest economy is prompting investors to put new capital to work with Germany ETFs. Through Thursday, only three ETFs have seen greater inflows than the $494.1 million added to the iShares MSCI Germany ETF (NYSEArca: EWG), the largest Germany ETF.

One of those three is the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund (NYSEArca:HEDJ), which allocates 26% of its weight to German stocks. No ETF has seen larger 2015 inflows than HEDJ’s $4.1 billion in new assets and the gap between HEDJ and the second-place inflows ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD), is sizable at over $1.6 billion.

Thanks to the faltering euro, investors are also flocking to currency hedged Germany ETFs. After taking in $450 million on Thursday, the iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Germany ETF (NYSEArca: HEWG) has added over $491 million this week. The ETF, which uses EWG with a EUR/USD hedge, had $287.4 million in assets heading into Thursday.

On a percentage basis, the Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Germany Hedged Equity Fund (NYSEArca: DBGR) and the WisdomTree Germany Hedged Equity Fund (NasdaqGM: DXGE) have also seen significant asset growth. DXGE has more than doubled in size this year while DBGR has tripled in size since the start of 2014.

Underscoring the advantage of the euro hedge with German equities, DBGR and DXGE have both produced double-digit returns over the past month while EWG is up “just” 7.5%. Importantly, economic data supports the case for more upside for Germany ETFs,

“German gross domestic product expanded 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter, soaring past an estimate for 0.3 percent. Private consumption rose markedly in the fourth quarter, and investment developed positively, driven by a significant increase in construction output,” reports Inyoung Hwang for Bloomberg.