Tag Archives: spy

ProShares’ Burger King Idea: “Ex-Sector” ETF Menu

Hold the pickles, and hold the lettuce…Just when MarketsMuse curators and an assortment of ETF market enthusiasts thought there might already be enough themes, toppings and twists to the growing number of exchange-traded funds, ProShares is taking a page straight out of Burger King’s 1970’s branding campaign via a newly-launched menu of “ex-sector ETFs.”  The new, S&P-centric menu enables investors to have it their way and to express bets in the S&P 500, but “ex” specific sub sectors. Confused as to why? According to a report by CNBC’s Alex Rosenberg, so are select industry professionals who view this innovation as convoluted. Below is an excerpt from Rosenberg’s juicy bytes..

proshares bk have it your wayA new set of exchange-traded funds offered by ProShares allows investors to get exposure to the entire S&P 500, save for one or another given sector. Specifically, the company now offers ETFs tracking the S&P 500 ex-energy (trading under the ticker symbol SPXE), ex-financials (SPXN), ex-health care (SPXV) and ex-technology (SPXT).

In a Thursday interview with CNBC’s “Trading Nation,” ProShares’ head of investment strategy, Simeon Hyman, highlighted two anticipated uses for the ETFs: diversification and tactical decision-making.

Hyman provides the example of an investor who already has high exposure to a given sector—such as an executive compensated in a company’s stock, or an inheritor who has received a large number of shares—and does not want to take on excess exposure.

“Previously you’d have to maybe call up a trust company or find someone to run a custom strategy for you to avoid that sector, and here it’s just very straightforward: Buy an ETF. The sector’s out, it’s redistributed across the other names on a market-cap-weighted basis, you don’t have to worry about it,” Hyman said.

Second, the ETFs are designed for those who believe a given sector, such as energy, is set to underperform the rest of the market. “If you have that conviction, this is a very straightforward and easy way to effect that view,” he said.

Yet given that retail investors are often considered to be best served by buying into the overall market and avoiding tactical calls, some say these ETFs might be an inferior play compared to, say, SPDR’s popular S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

“As a core holding, you are far less diversified,” Eric Mustin, vice president of ETF trading solutions at WallachBeth Capital, wrote to CNBC. “You are implicitly overweight the other sectors versus the S&P 500 weightings.” The expense ratio, at 0.27 percent, also irks Mustin.

“You are paying nearly 200 percent to 300 percent the management fees” compared to a product like the (SPY), he pointed out. “I think it’s a product that may find some success among a retail audience, but sophisticated investors probably won’t have an appetite for it.”

When there is a “pronounced discrepancy in attractiveness,” such as the clear unattractiveness of energy at the beginning of the year given dismal earnings expectations and high valuations, “it would seem logical to exclude that sector,” S&P Capital IQ’s equity chief investment officer, Erin Gibbs, wrote to CNBC.

“However, these clear-cut unattractive sector events do not happen that often, and therefore these products could have limited appeal,” she added. Here’s what Hyman has to say:

And, as a special treat to MarketsMuse readers who are “of age”, here’s a dandy clip that adds flavor to this story:

marketsmuse cites global macro guru neil azous of rareview macro re august 2015 equities market rout

Market Mayhem: A Rare View From Global Macro Guru

One needs to have ‘been there and seen that’ for at least twenty years in order to have been “loaded for bear” in advance of this morning’s equities market rout. At least one of the folks who MarketsMuse has profiled during the past many months meets that profile; and those who have a true global macro perspective such as Rareview Macro’s Neil Azous have pointed to the credit spread widening during the past number of months as a prime harbinger of things to come. And so they have…

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro

Last night, Neil Azous published one of his finer commentaries in advance of this morning’s global equities market rout and incorporated a great phrase:

“Man looks in the abyss, there’s nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss.” – Lou Mannheim, Wall Street, 1987

 

The highlights of last night’s edition of “Sight Beyond Sight” are below…

  • Big Picture View
  • S&P 500 View
  • Asset allocation Requires Swimming Against the Tide – Low-to-Negative Downside Capture
  • Long German versus Short US Equities (Currency Hedge)
  • US Fixed Income – Short 2016 Eurodollars
  • Long European & Japanese Equities (FX hedged), US Biotech and US 10-Yr Treasuries
  • Long US Energy Sector
  • Volatility – Sell Apple Inc.; Not the S&P 500 or VIX
  • Harvesting S&P 500 Index Option Skew
  • Long Agricultural Call Options
  • Long US Housing (Hedged)
  • Technical Mean Reversion – Short EUR/BRL
  • Long Euro Stoxx 50 Index Dividend Futures (symbol: DEDA Index)

To read the full edition of the Sight Beyond Sight special Sunday (Aug 23 2015) commentary, please click here*

*Subscription is required; a free, 10-day trial is available

Neil Azous is the founder and managing member of Rareview Macro, an advisory firm to some of the world’s most influential investors and the publisher of the daily newsletter Sight Beyond Sight.

Its All Greek..A RareView View…

As the events in Greece escalate to a frenzy, global macro strategists are lining up to opine on what might happen as the EU and the world calculate the impact of a Grexit. MarketsMuse tapped into one of the industry’s most thoughtful strategists and one who is notorious for having both ‘sight beyond sight’ and inevitably, a view that is rare when compared to those who position themselves as “opinionators.”  Without further ado, below is the extracted version of the 29 June edition of “Sight Beyond Sight

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro
  • Key Talking Points…What People Are Watching…Major Asset Prices
  • US Fixed Income – Choke Yourself If  You Believe in 2 Rate Hikes in 2015
  • China – Correction Accelerates Government Learning Curve & Possibly IPO Reform

 

We started working early yesterday morning, spending time on the phone with as many risk takers as possible around the world and listening in on numerous bank conference calls on the unfolding events. Additionally, we felt compelled to watch our screens all night. At the time of writing, we have not actioned one item in our model portfolio and are nowhere near able to aggregate the thoughts of the risk takers we respect or the market commentary we received from anyone who writes research for a living. The fact is there is no coherent sentence to write. The dust has yet to settle, and until it does, no one can claim to know what will happen.

Despite all of this market plumbing being very visible, and even after the Greece referendum news on Friday, the probability of a disorderly financial reaction due to its consequences has only risen to ~40% from 20% or less based on what we can gather. Leaving last week many held the view there was a 50-50 probability for a resolution with a bias for a positive outcome.

Now let’s go through the asset classes and products, and ask how they will perform. For ETF players, our lens is on GREK, FXI, HEDJ and necessarily, SPY. For those looking for an immediate take-away trade with regard to the overwhelming Greek-infused chitter chatter and jibber jabber, think $GLD. In this case, our view, which we have espoused for more than 15 minutes, might or might not be  ‘rare’, but its one we can hang our hat on…

Prudent risk management says that the overriding exercise now is to take risk down regardless of your bias on the outcome. Resolution strategies are a distant second place and with US employment Thursday followed by a three day weekend that includes this Greek referendum, that makes this scenario that much more likely.

In terms of Greece, many are watching/waiting for the ECB reaction function to the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA), which is scheduled to be revisited on Wednesday. As a reminder, the events in 2012, in which there was a large spike in the ELA program assistance as a result of Greece, was the catalyst for the now famous “do whatever it takes” speech by ECB President Mario Draghi. Ironically, the three-year anniversary of that speech is coming up shortly and there is no question professionals want to see Draghi re-ignite the European recovery trade. Our point is that faith in him being a steward of the market remains unwavering and he is still the only person perceived as the class act in this goat rodeo.

If we had to pick one asset that we all were led to believe mattered in the context of a “Grexit” over the last five years, and that was supposed to react to that event, it would be Gold. It should be up $50 at a minimum and yet it can barely hold a bid. If you feel bad for the citizens of Greece, then please save a little sympathy for the Gold terrorists at the failure of the yellow metal to respond today. Next week, if things get worse, and gold still fails to respond, that could be the final nail in their coffin. At least there will be one good outcome to the whole sorry saga. Continue reading

pendulum swining rareview

Global Macro: Decomposing the Move in Yields-The Pendulum Swing

Decomposing the Move in Yields…Global Fixed Income Coming Closer to Decoupling from German Bunds

MarketsMuse Global Macro and Fixed Income departments merge to provide insight courtesy of “Sight Beyond Sight”, the must read published by global macro think tank Rareview Macro LLC. Below is the opening extract from 10 June edition.

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro

Firstly, please note this morning’s Model Portfolio Update: Crude Oil, XLU/SPY, IYR/SPY, FXI: As per yesterday’s edition of Sight Beyond Sight, we added to existing long positions in Crude Oil, XLU/SPY and IYR/SPY. The update was broadcast in real time via @RareviewMacro.

Now, on to the day’s primary talking points..

The confidence level in the professional community remains low. The attack on the Dollar-Yen (USD/JPY), which had its largest one-day drop since August 2013, was just another casualty of the search and destroy mission underway in overall asset markets. The fact is that there is no model–valuation, technical, or otherwise–that can handicap the speed and the degree of the backup in global yields. The overriding question remains: “When will global yields stop going up, and when can the rest of fixed income decouple from German Bund leadership?”

Risk-Adjusted Return Monitor Summary & Views Continue reading

rareview macro jun4

ETF Trade for Experts Only: Revert to the Mean: IYR, XLU, SPY

“What Goes Up, Must Come Down”

MarketsMuse ETF update is courtesy of a special trade post sent this afternoon to subscribers of “Sight Beyond Sight”, the global macro trade newsletter published by Rareview Macro LLC and authored by Neil Azous.  The trade alert was also posted to Twitter via @RareviewMacro. For those not familiar with the concept of mean reversion, the simplest metaphor that drives the following thesis is “what goes up must come down.”

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro

As highlighted in this morning’s edition of Sight Beyond Sight, the ratio of the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) and Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is now trading at approximately two standard deviations away from its regression line since US interest rates peaked in September 2013.

rvr jun4

A short while ago in the model portfolio, we initiated a new mean reversion strategy in both of these ratios.

Specifically, we are buying $10 million notional each of IYR and XLU, and selling $20 million notional of SPY over the rest of today at VWAP.

Tomorrow, depending upon the results of the US Labor Report, we will add an additional $10 million notional each of IYR and XLU, and sell an additional $20 million notional of SPY in the morning.

Below is a thesis and trade matrix with a pre-defined game plan for gains and losses. Continue reading

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These ETFs Could Make You The Next Warren Buffett

MarketsMuse blog update profiles the best ETFs to invest in according to Zacks Equity Research to become the next Warren Buffett. The ETFs range from technology, to financial, to consumer. This MarketsMuse update is courtesy of Zacks Equity Research article, “Follow Warren Buffett with These Stocks and ETFs“, with an excerpt below. 

Everybody dreams of becoming rich and famous like Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, Daniel Loeb and David Tepper. After all, these Wall Street gurus have successfully put their money in the right place and continued to reap huge returns.

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has enjoyed an average growth rate of about 20% annually. Furthermore, Berkshire Hathaway has added more than 104% over the last five years that is better than the gain of over 94% from the broader market ETF SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) during the same timeframe.

Thanks to this achievement, following billionaires’ investment strategies is now a fad these days. While investing in Berkshire is always a good way of following Buffett, who is commonly known as The Oracle of Omaha, there are numerous other ways to reproduce this stock market veteran’s investment theme and jazz up one’s portfolio.

Normally, Buffett takes interest in companies trading below what he believes is their intrinsic value.He aims long-term outperformance and apparently ignores short-term downturns. We have analyzed a few stocks that remain Buffett’s favorites and highlight the related ETFs for investors who want to follow this investment veteran.

The ETFs that Zacks Equity Research recommend to invest in to follow in Warren Buffett’s footsteps are as follows:

  • iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF (IYG)
  • SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF(XLP)
  • Market Vectors Retail ETF(RTH)
  • Consumer Staples ETF (VDC)
  • NASDAQ Technology Dividend Index Fund (TDIV)
  • Direxion iBillionaire Index ETF (IBLN)
  • Validea Market Legends ETF (VALX)
  •  Global X Guru Holdings Index ETF (GURU)

To read more about why Zacks Equity Research named these ETFs the best to be like Warren Buffett, click here.

isra etf

MarketsMuse Eye on Israel ETFs $EIS, $ISRA: Not Just Chopped Liver

MarketsMuse.com ETF update is courtesy of extract from 15 April Zacks.com article published at SeekingAlpha.com

Despite endless economic and financial woes, as well as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Israeli stocks have been on the rise and are clearly outperforming its neighboring countries and the broad world market.

This is particularly true given that the iShares MSCI Israel Capped ETF (NYSEARCA:EIS) and the Market Vectors Israel ETF (NYSEARCA:ISRA) have gained in double digits so far this year. This is compared to the gains of 3.9% for WisdomTree Middle East Dividend ETF (NASDAQ:GULF), 6.3% for the SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa ETF (NYSEARCA:GAF), 5.2% for the iShares MSCI ACWI Index ETF (NASDAQ:ACWI) and 2.6% for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY).

The strong gains came from the easing policies adopted by the Bank of Israel (BOI) to guard against the recent appreciation of the shekel and pull the country out of deflation. The BOI surprisingly reduced its interest rate by 15 bps to a record low of 0.10% in February that will likely boost economic growth and the inflation rate to 1-3% within a year, while maintaining financial stability. The bank could introduce further measures, matching Europe to stimulate growth in the economy, if required.

Israel remains one of the stable countries in the Middle East amid endless territorial disputes and security concerns. The country’s economy has proven to be quite resilient and strong compared to those of its neighboring nations. Israel is the dominant leader in technological innovation, which is pulling solid capital into the country. Continue reading

expert view

MarketsMuse: This ETF Trading Expert Has This To Say About That…

MarketsMuse.com ETF update is pleased to share an informative perspective about best practices and “best execution” that institutional investment managers, RIAs and others should consider when using ETFs, courtesy of insight from one of the more widely respected members of ETF “agency-only” execution space. Here’s the excerpt of the ETFdb.com interview:

etfdb logoAll walks have come to embrace the exchange-traded product structure as the preferred vehicle when it comes to building out low-cost, well diversified portfolios. Furthermore, active traders have also taken note of the inherent advantages associated with the ETF wrapper, embracing the product structure for its unparalleled ease-of-use and intraday liquidity.

ETFdb.com recently had the opportunity to talk with Mohit Bajaj, Director of ETF Trading Solutions at WallachBeth Capital, about his firm’s role in the industry as well as the evolution of ETF trading in recent years.

ETF Database (ETFdb): What’s your firm’s story? What role do you play in the ETF industry?

Continue reading

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Following Slashing ETF Prices, State Street To Shutdown Three ETFs

MarketMuse update profiles the the second oldest financial institution in the United States, State Street’s plans to shut down three ETFs after what has been a very difficult year for them. The shutdowns are due to what they call “limited market demand”. With more of an update, an excerpt from InvestmentNews’ Trevor Hunnicutt’s story, “State Street to close three ETFs that attracted little investor interest” from 10 March , is below. 

The announced closure of the ETFs, including one municipal-bond fund in partnership with Nuveen Investments Inc., comes five weeks after the ETF pioneer slashed prices on nearly a third of its funds and while the firm faces outflows in its flagship fund.

State Street, who manages the first-to-market “SPDR” ETFs, will shut its S&P Mortgage Finance ETF (KME), S&P Small Cap Emerging Asia Pacific ETF (GMFS) and SPDR Nuveen S&P VRDO Municipal Bond ETF (VRD), according to a statement Monday. The funds are each at least three years old, but none hold more than $6 million in assets.

State Street, whose money managing arm is also known as SSGA, has $441 billion in U.S. ETF assets, third behind BlackRock Inc.’s iShares and the Vanguard Group Inc. The firm is perhaps best known for its SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which is commonly recognized as the first ETF traded in the U.S. as well as the most widely traded. That fund has lost $26 billion to investor redemptions this year, according to Morningstar Inc. estimates. State Street, whose index-tracking fund is used widely by tactical traders and institutions along with advisers, has said those flows are cyclical.

Meanwhile, the firm also has tried to expand its lineup to more profitable mutual funds and partnerships on ETFs with Nuveen and DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach to attract assets into other product lines.

For the entire article from InvestmentNews, click here.

mvmve index rareview

Global Macro ETF: A Rareview- Look No Further and Look Down Under $MVMVE

MarketsMuse global macro trading insight courtesy of extract from 4 Feb edition of Rareview Macro LLC’s “Sight Beyond Sight” with reference to $MVE and $MVMVE

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro

There are a lot of moving parts overnight, including the continuing debate on whether crude oil has bottomed or not. But if we had to focus on just one part of the narrative it would be Australia – the tentacles of which stretch out all the way to basic resources, yield, beta, deflation, and sentiment.

Now before dismissing any read through from this antipodean nation as not as relevant as other indicators, we would argue that what is happening there may well have more meaningful ramifications for global risk assets than most realize.

Firstly, the Market Vectors Australia Junior Energy & Mining Index (symbol: MVMVE) is showing the largest positive risk-adjusted return across regions and assets for the second day in a row.

By way of background, MVMVE covers the largest and most liquid Australian and offshore small-caps generating 50%+ of their revenues from energy & mining and listed in Australia. This basket of securities is not only highly geared to capex, utilities, infrastructure, and engineering but it is the poster child for Australia-Asia commodity speculation. Put another way, it has been the worst-of-the-worst and a favorite proxy to watch for those who hold the dogmatic view that China and Australia are both zeros.

We do not want to overemphasize the importance of just one index, so we are highlighting it more as a starting point than anything else. It is not uncommon for this index to show up on our equity monitor but it is rare for it to take the leadership across all regions and assets, and very rare for that to happen on back-to-back days. For that reason, it has prompted us to do some further analysis on that food chain.

Model Portfolio Update – Increased S&P 500 (SPY) Short Position Continue reading

US Equities: Lower Is More Likely Than Higher: A RareView Global Macro View Point

Below is excerpt from opening lines of today’s edition of “Sight Beyond Sight”, the macro-strategy commentary courtesy of Stamford, CT-based think tank Rareview Macro LLC. Our thanks to firm principal Neil Azous for the following observations.

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Model Portfolio Update:   Significantly Reduced Equity Net Long Exposure

Our inspiration level today is almost as low as the price of gold – that is, close to touching a low for the year.

We are struggling to find a meaningful macro catalyst or new top-down theme. None of the specific ideas we have analyzed recently are an “A Trade” and we will not deploy them ourselves, or ask you to either. The risk-reward in the short-term in many consensus themes are up 1 and down 2, not the profile of up 3 and down 1 that in the past we have always looked for.

In fact, we are finding that the psychology that has driven us all year is dissipating and for the first time we are more concerned about giving back performance in the model portfolio than generating further profits.

In the absence of a new opportunity, and following a period of healthy outperformance, a dilemma has arisen for us – markets/positions by nature mean revert. Now everyone has their own metric they watch for,  and their own threshold for the mean reversion in their portfolio to start with. But let us just say that ours has been breached and it has served us well in the past to pay attention to that.

Now that may not be the case for many of you, and if we were in your position there is little question we would be pursuing the same ideas/themes in order to catch up with our benchmark. For today, we have little to offer you. However, like the Homebuilder seasonality and beta observation made yesterday (reminder BZH reported this morning and is in small cap basket we presented), we will continue to highlight ideas as and when they arise.

So in that spirit, we significantly reduced our net long equity exposure. Continue reading

A Rareview View: Small vs. Large Caps: $SPY/$IWM

Below is excerpt courtesy of 07.29 edition of Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight”

Small vs. Large Caps

Below are two charts of the ratio of the S&P 500 (symbol: SPY) to the Russell 2000 (symbol: IWM).

The first chart shows the performance of the ratio (i.e. long SPY vs. short IWM) on the top each time the relative strength index (i.e. 14-day RSI) reaches ~70. This ratio is currently overbought.

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Going back to 2009 there have been ~10 points in time where the RSI reached ~70 (i.e. overbought) using the standard 14-day period. The average gain in the ratio is ~7.7% vs. the current gain at 6.6% off the July 2014 low.

The second chart shows the Fibonacci retracement levels following the GFC. The 61.8% FIB level is 1.2%. That happens to coincide with the average gain (i.e. ~7.7%) of the last 10 times that coincided with a ~70 RSI.

Courtesy of Rareview Macro's Sight Beyond Sight 07.29
Courtesy of Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight 07.29

We have placed an order to buy $20 million of IWM and sell short $20mm of SPY at this 61.8% retracement level. Out stop is the 76.4% retracement level which is ~2.7% above the 61.8% retracement level. That would equate to a loss of ~$540k or ~50 basis points of the NAV. As a reminder, we refer to 50 basis points as one unit of risk.

Continue reading

Markets Mauled Today: A Rareview Macro-Strategy View

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Below excerpt courtesy this a.m.’s edition of macro-strategy newsletter “Sight Beyond Sight”

Today is the first time in recent memory that investors are waking up to a meaningful gap down in US equity index futures.

By virtue of the fact that S&P 500 futures were down ~1.0% at one point this morning, the 57-day streak with no 1% up/down move in the index level has finally been broken today and that is clearly a talking point.

The other interesting observation for US equity participants is that Russell 2000 futures (symbol: RTAU4) are currently down -2.2%. That is much more than the German DAX -1.6%) and commensurate with the weakness in the Spanish IBEX (-2.5%) and Italian MIB (-2.15%) indices.

Given that investor sentiment is also very fragile at the moment, and despite this being a very immature approach to investing and nearly always misguided, the fact is a 2-3% move lower in the index always triggers calls for a larger 7-10% correction.

Our view is different. Continue reading

Go With The Flow? ETF Execution Expert Says This…

Agency-Execution firm WallachBeth Capital’s Andy McOrmond, a recognized expert in ETF order execution for leading investment managers and RIAs appearing on CNBC with his [personal] thoughts as to whether  now is, or is not the time to “go with the flow.”

Talking points: SPY v. VYM…$HEDJ and more..  Click on the image below to launch the video clip courtesy of our friends over at CNBC.

mcormond
WallachBeth Capital’s Andy McOrmond on CNBC

The Anger Indicator: A Rareview

Below extract courtesy of this a.m.’s edition of Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight..(Re-published with permission from Neil Azous)

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Here is an aggregation of the various statistics either sent to us from subscribers or we came across during our readings this weekend.

1.  Japan Government Pension Fund (GPIG):  Apple (AAPL), Exxon and Microsoft have the heaviest weighting in the MSCI Kokusai Index; ~87% of GPIF’s foreign stock holdings follow this benchmark. (Source:  Eurofaultlines)

2.  As far as we can tell the degree of these inflows have not yet been widely observed by other paid forecasters on the Street. EM Portfolio Inflows Reach New High In May: Our EM portfolio flows tracker indicates that portfolio inflows to emerging economies continued their upward trend of the last several months, reaching the highest level since September 2012, when the Fed launched QE3 (Chart 1). In May, EMs are estimated to have received $45 billion in portfolio inflows from global investors, up from $28 billion in April and $27 billion in March. The May figure reflects $28 billion going into EM bond markets (portfolio debt flows,Chart 2) and $17 billion into EM stock markets (portfolio equity flows, Chart 3). (Source: Institute of International Finance) Report

3.  This week the S&P 500 will surpass the 1995-96 record for number of consecutive days in which the index has traded above its 200-day moving average.

4.  SPY closed above its upper Bollinger 5 days in a row through Friday. SPY has only closed above its upper Bollinger 4 days in a row 4 times since 2009. (Source: Fat Pitch)

5.  Relative Strength Indicators (RSI)

a.  The S&P 500 (SPY) 9-day RSI is over 70 = Overbought

b.  The NASDAQ (NDX) 9-day RSI is 74 and AAPL’s is 80 = Overbought

c.  The Transports (IYT) 9-day RSI is over 77 = Overbought

d.  The Semiconductors SOX) 9-day RSI is over 70 = Overbought

6.  Since 1950, the DJIA has lost -1.9% and SPX -2.1% in June. The last 20 years have been even weaker. Moreover, the SPX has been down in 11 of the last 16 mid-term elections Junes (Source: Stock Traders Almanac).

7.  The VIX has closed below 12 for five straight days, the longest streak at that level since 2007 (Source:  Volatility Trader) Continue reading

Macro-Strategist Rareview: Pause in Mean Reversion

rareview sbs logo Below excerpt courtesy of this a.m. edition of Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight”
“..The call today by the professional community for a retracement of the recent weakness in Equities is very loud…

This viewpoint disregards the fact that S&P 500 futures are already 2.5% higher than Monday’s intra-day low. The key point being is that with the last price in index futures at ~1848 the market is right back at the 50% retracement of the April high (~1892) and low (~1803).

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

In our view this thought process misses the point. The real takeaway is that after weeks of instability many are finally resigned to a pause in the mean reversion of last year’s strategies. This also includes a contraction in the very high intra-day volatility. Meaning, the peak-to-trough index ranges should narrow into option expiration.

While we do not fully agree with the shift in sentiment we are mindful that the price action argues in favor of a retracement in certain strategies and we will adjust some positioning in the model portfolio to be prudent..

Firstly, the model portfolio pre-market closed out the entire short Small Cap (IWM) and long Large Cap (SPY) relative value strategy. We covered the IWM short for 112.22 and sold the SPY long at 185.36. While we still believe this is a great intermediate-term theme the fact is that we never thought we would be able to generate more than 5% of outperformance this quickly relative to when we deployed the strategy on March 19th. We will look to re-initiate this position in the near future if it were to retrace 3-4%.

Continue reading

Top Macro-Strategist Says “Now Negative on Index Levels; Bullish on USD..”

MarketsMuse Editor Note: Below comments from this a.m.’s edition of “Sight Beyond Sight” were among several that jumped off the page..

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

“..Conversely, Technology has moved to the “Weakening” from “Leading” quadrant and Healthcare is now exhibiting the same early stage relative weakness as Technology. The takeaway is that there is a clear rotation into defensive strategies and for the first time in a very long while the leadership (Healthcare/Technology) is the source of funds. Thematically, 2014 has been “a market of stocks instead of a stock market….So the question that needs to be asked is whether a sector rotation has the ability to finally break the SP500 index level range….”
“..We are becoming increasingly negative about the US index levels for the first time in a long while…and we believe that the USD will begin to appreciate..”

Produced by macro strategy think tank Rareview Macro LLC and authored by Neil Azous, Sight Beyond Sight is a daily newsletter that has become a “must read” for leading fund managers and sophisticated investors..Free 2-week trial (without need for providing credit card info!) is a brilliant way to become introduced to the firm’s insight and content. The archive section for the publication is available via this link to the SBS website.

Position Limits Lifted on $SPY Options

marketsmedia logo

Exchanges and Finra have adopted rule changes which lift restrictions on position limits on options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). In 2012, NYSE Amex Options was the first exchange to file for and receive approval to eliminate position and exercise limits for SPY options. Subsequently, other exchanges and Finra have amended their rules governing SPY position and exercise limits.

“This is great news for everyone,” said Steve Crutchfield, CEO of NYSE Amex Options. “In August 2012, we, Amex, were the first options exchange to file for, and ultimately be approved, to eliminate position limits in SPY.”

SPY is the most liquid options contract, accounting for about 12% of all options trading volume, making it a logical candidate for elimination of position limits. NYSE Amex Options is lifting the position limit on a pilot basis, until December 15, 2014. “Our thinking is to evaluate the pilot, provide data to the SEC, and assuming all goes well, we would be interested in expanding this to ETFs on other broad-based indexes like IWM, QQQ and similar products,” Crutchfield said.

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