Tag Archives: NYSE:FB

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Bitcoin Price Surge in Advance of SEC Decision to Approve Bitcoin ETF

Speculators betting on the SEC approving the very first Bitcoin ETF listing helped push the price of the digital currency aka crytopcurrency to a record high in advance of a March 11 SEC meeting in which regulators are scheduled to determine whether the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF [proposed ticker NASDAQ:COIN] is fit for every day investors to purchase and trade on public markets.  In over-the-counter trading on Friday, the price of a single bitcoin soared to as high as $1,200 per bitcoin i Europe’s Bitstamp exchange, before easing to about $1,190. Aggregated bitcoin exchange prices pegged the price at closer to $1174. That put the total value of all bitcoins in circulation — or the digital currency’s “market cap”, as it is known — at close to $20 billion, around the same size as Iceland’s economy.

bitcoin-etf-sec-decision-marketsmuseThe bitcoin ETF is the brainchild of Harvard-educated investors Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, the twin brothers who for years claimed to be the genius behind the creation of Facebook (NYSE:FB). The pair first submitted their initial offering prospectus for a bitcoin exchange-traded fund nearly four years ago. They have since modified the offering documents several times in an effort to appease securities regulators. If approved, everyday investors will have simple access to the cryptocurrency on a major exchange for the very first time, which would no doubt legitimize Bitcoin’s existence and according to some, likely push its value much higher.

Two other prospective bitcoin ETF issuers have more recently filed offering prospectuses with the Securities & Exchange Commission. SolidX Partners sought SEC approval last July for its bitcoin ETF, SolidX Bitcoin Trust , which also would be listed on the NYSE. In January, Grayscale Investments filed to list its own Bitcoin Investment Trust on the NYSE.

According to ETF Daily News, “A ten-day rally for the cryptocurrency has narrowed its gap with the precious metal to the smallest on record. Each asset has been touted as an alternative to regular currencies, because of constraints on their supply and the capacity they offer to sidestep governments.”

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First invented in 2008, the price of a bitcoin has performed better than any other currency in every year since 2010 apart from 2014, when it was the worst-performing currency, and has added almost a quarter to its value so far this year.

Per ETF Daily News, many hurdles remain for the ETF to pass regulators’ tests. “The SEC is worried about Bitcoin’s safety, security, volatility, and shareholder protection. “Traditional financial players have largely shunned the web-based “crytpocurrency,” viewing it as too volatile, complicated and risky, and doubting its inherent value. ” On the other hand, some analysts say regulatory approval of a bitcoin ETF would make the currency relatively attractive to the often more cautious institutional investor market.

But despite potentially high returns, low correlations with other currencies and assets, falling volatility and increasing liquidity, there is scant evidence so far that most major players are considering investing in the digital currency.

“Bitcoin is just not liquid enough for us to even think about,” said Paul Lambert, fund manager and head of currency investment at Insight, in London.

“We manage billions and billions of dollars we’d need to be able to go into that market and trade in hundreds of millions of dollars at a time, and my sense is it’s not like that.”

 

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Global Macro View-Friday’s Stock Rally In Perspective

MarketsMuse curators have canvassed assortment of guru-types who have attempted to decipher Friday’s stock rally, along with tuning in to the abundance of Monday morning quarterback views. For those who turn to the cartoon channel (i.e. CNBC), some pundits call it a dead cat bounce, more optimistic professional traders and pontificators would like to believe the spike on Friday is a sign of a “bottoming formation”–irrespective of many signals that suggest the “R-word” will become more frequently used when describing the state of the US economy. Smarter money, particularly those who have Sight Beyond Sight are focusing on following a private weekend comment summarizing last Thursday’s email newsletter from global macro think Rareview Macro…

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Neil Azous, Rareview Macro

Factually the 14-day (Relative Strength Index) or “RSI” on the SPX Index is now 39; no one with a straight face can say the market is oversold technically. Last week, when the S&P futures bounced off the lows the professional community was open to the notion that the index could trade back up into the 1920-1960 range. That has not happened despite three key things:

  1. President Draghi has backing of the Committee now to ease policy further;
  2. The FOMC was dovish and the implied probability of a hike in March now is at 18% (it was ~28% yesterday); anything below 20% most likely means it’s going to zero; unconditional probability of June is exactly 20%; post-March FOMC that is most likely around 33% or 3 to 1 AGAINST;
  3. Crude oil has taken out last week’s highs multiple times and broken the downtrend channel today on an intra-day basis. Additionally, the market has removed the majority of event risk related to Yen and Nikkei heading into the BoJ meeting tonight on the view that if the BoJ eases they go big (20 bonds, 1-3 ETF, and even cut IOER) because they can’t risk an incremental easing that the market rejects.

The key question is with largely every asset now discounting these central bank events and the high degree of correlation of risk assets to crude oil, especially the S&P 500, why has the S&P not responded and traded up to the expected range of 1920-1960?

The answer is that tomorrow the BEA releases their quarterly update for corporate profits (Bloomberg Ticker: CPFTYOY Index). Last quarter it was down -5.74%. The key point being is that tomorrow brings a likely confirmation of two-quarters in a row of declining profits – or a “profit recession”. Remember, this is a clean look at profitability and there are no footnotes like a company specific earnings release that can attempt to paint any Picasso they want.

Additionally, ISM Manufacturing data is released on Monday and in order for the cyclical call bounce to begin to materialize it can’t show another print to the downside. Right now the market has shifted to a 40-50% probability of a forthcoming recession up from 10-20% to start the year. Confirmation of further ISM Manufacturing weakness will only accentuate the view that 11 of the last 13 recessions included ISM Manufacturing printing below the 50 level.

So while you may have to wait for two-quarters in a row of negative GDP at some point in the future to get formal confirmation of a recession, the risk is that corporate profits and manufacturing will govern risk assets for the time being and outweigh the heavy emphasis the Ph.D. community places on the consumer and a services-driven economy for now.

When you marry all of this with corporate earnings season that is now half-way complete, with the exception of Facebook (NYSE:FB), not one icon company has had a good print or said something truly positive in the outlook. In fact, AAPL is very close to touching its 200-week moving average like Russell 2000 and Transports. The last time that happened was during the GFC.

Finally, Friday was month-end and the bulls will lose the call for further pension re-balancing that showed equities were very large to buy. The risk now, with all of the oversold conditions worked off, is that the S&P 500 resumes its downtrend and like every other risk asset the 200-week moving average of 1704 is a magnet.

Interest Rate Probability Dispersion Post-FOMC:

  • Hike Twice March AND June: 6%
  • Hike Once March OR June: 36%
  • NO Hike At All by June: 58%

Rareview Macro is the publisher of “Sight Beyond Sight“, a subscription-based advisory service for professional investors, hedge funds and self-directed investors and offers actionable trade ideas using futures, options, and ETFs within the framework of a disciplined analysis process. Author Neil Azous publishes intra-day updates re model portfolio and trade posts via Twitter @rareviewmacro