Tag Archives: $GREK

ETF News, Fixed Income, Global Macro Strategy

Its All Greek..A RareView View…

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As the events in Greece escalate to a frenzy, global macro strategists are lining up to opine on what might happen as the EU and the world calculate the impact of a Grexit. MarketsMuse tapped into one of the industry’s most thoughtful strategists and one who is notorious for having both ‘sight beyond sight’ and inevitably, a view that is rare when compared to those who position themselves as “opinionators.”  Without further ado, below is the extracted version of the 29 June edition of “Sight Beyond Sight“

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro
  • Key Talking Points…What People Are Watching…Major Asset Prices
  • US Fixed Income – Choke Yourself If  You Believe in 2 Rate Hikes in 2015
  • China – Correction Accelerates Government Learning Curve & Possibly IPO Reform

 

We started working early yesterday morning, spending time on the phone with as many risk takers as possible around the world and listening in on numerous bank conference calls on the unfolding events. Additionally, we felt compelled to watch our screens all night. At the time of writing, we have not actioned one item in our model portfolio and are nowhere near able to aggregate the thoughts of the risk takers we respect or the market commentary we received from anyone who writes research for a living. The fact is there is no coherent sentence to write. The dust has yet to settle, and until it does, no one can claim to know what will happen.

Despite all of this market plumbing being very visible, and even after the Greece referendum news on Friday, the probability of a disorderly financial reaction due to its consequences has only risen to ~40% from 20% or less based on what we can gather. Leaving last week many held the view there was a 50-50 probability for a resolution with a bias for a positive outcome.

Now let’s go through the asset classes and products, and ask how they will perform. For ETF players, our lens is on GREK, FXI, HEDJ and necessarily, SPY. For those looking for an immediate take-away trade with regard to the overwhelming Greek-infused chitter chatter and jibber jabber, think $GLD. In this case, our view, which we have espoused for more than 15 minutes, might or might not be  ‘rare’, but its one we can hang our hat on…

Prudent risk management says that the overriding exercise now is to take risk down regardless of your bias on the outcome. Resolution strategies are a distant second place and with US employment Thursday followed by a three day weekend that includes this Greek referendum, that makes this scenario that much more likely.

In terms of Greece, many are watching/waiting for the ECB reaction function to the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA), which is scheduled to be revisited on Wednesday. As a reminder, the events in 2012, in which there was a large spike in the ELA program assistance as a result of Greece, was the catalyst for the now famous “do whatever it takes” speech by ECB President Mario Draghi. Ironically, the three-year anniversary of that speech is coming up shortly and there is no question professionals want to see Draghi re-ignite the European recovery trade. Our point is that faith in him being a steward of the market remains unwavering and he is still the only person perceived as the class act in this goat rodeo.

If we had to pick one asset that we all were led to believe mattered in the context of a “Grexit” over the last five years, and that was supposed to react to that event, it would be Gold. It should be up $50 at a minimum and yet it can barely hold a bid. If you feel bad for the citizens of Greece, then please save a little sympathy for the Gold terrorists at the failure of the yellow metal to respond today. Next week, if things get worse, and gold still fails to respond, that could be the final nail in their coffin. At least there will be one good outcome to the whole sorry saga. Continue reading →

ETF News

PIIGS Bring Home the Bacon For The Eurozone

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MarketMuse update is courtesy of Tom Lydon from ETF Trends. 

Continuing with what has turned out to be exhausting coverage of European ETFs, the Portuguese, Irish, Italian, Spanish and Greek stocks (the PIIGS) ETFs are showing a bright immediate future for the Eurozone. 

Though still controversial, due in part to looming speculation that Greece could potentially depart the Eurozone, exchange traded funds tracking Portuguese, Irish, Italian, Spanish and Greek stocks (the PIIGS) have the look of value propositions.

Even with Greece’s change in government, one that threatens the country’s ability to pay its debts, meet funding needs and could hasten the country’s Eurozone departure, the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSEArca:GREK) has mustered a small year-to-date gain.

Earlier this month, Standard & Poor’s pared its rating on Greece’s sovereign debt to B- from B. The ratings agency is keeping the long- and short-term ratings on Greece on CreditWatch with negative implications. Greece’s B- rating is just one notch above CCC, a rating that implies vulnerability to nonpayment “and is dependent upon favorable business, financial, and economic conditions for the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation,” according to S&P, scenarios that Greece is unlikely to meet in the near-term.

The iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWI) and the iShares MSCI Ireland Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EIRL), often seen as the steadiest hand of the five PIIGS ETFs, have been far more alluring than GREK this year. EWI and EIRL are up an average of 6.5% with average volatility of about27%. GREK is up about 2% with 93% volatility.

Investors looking for exposure to multiple PIIGS through the convenience of one ETF that emphasizes value investing can turn to the actively managed Cambria Global Value ETF (NYSEArca: GVAL).

Cambria’s Mebane Faber “Faber employs a statistic called the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) ratio to evaluate countries. First developed by Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller, the CAPE has proven effective at predicting the future performance of U.S. stocks. The lower the ratio is, the higher the expected return. Faber has applied the CAPE to other countries in his own research. Examining a period from 1980 through 2013, he found that those countries’ markets with a CAPE below seven subsequently produced a 14.4% 10-year annualized return while those with the highest CAPE above 45 produced only 1.2%,” reports Lewis Braham for Barron’s.

GVAL targets the cheapest, most liquid picks in countries where political or economic crisis have depressed valuations. GVAL’s eligible country universe includes Greece, Russia, Hungary, Ireland, Spain, Czech Republic, Italy and Portugal.

At the end of 2014, the five PIIGS member nations combined for 46% of GVAL’s weight,according to Cambria data.

Portugal’s CAPE is 7.7, Italy’s 9.6, Ireland and Spain about 11. The U.S.’s, by contrast, is 27, according to Barron’s.

Helped by its PIIGS exposure and what was an 8% weight to suddenly resurgent Russian stocks at the end of last year, GVAL is up 6.4% over the past month, giving the ETF an advantage of 60 basis points over the iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (NasdaqGM: ACWX).

For the original article from ETF Trends, click here

ETF News

Greece ETF Crumbles to Ruins

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MarketMuse update is courtesy of Business Insider’s Sam Ro

MarketMuse has previously reported on the volatility the Greece elections created early this year now even more problems have ensued for the country. Following the the European Central Bank’s announcement that it lifted its waiver on minimum credit rating requirements for marketable instruments issued or guaranteed by Greece, Greece’s ETF crashed leaving just ruins left.

The Greek stock market closed hours ago, but the exchange-traded fund that tracks Greek stocks, GREK, crashed during the final minutes of trading in the US markets.

The euro is also getting walloped, falling 1.3% against the US dollar.

This comes following bad news from the European Central Bank (ECB) to Greece’s debt-laden banks.

Shortly after 3:30 p.m. ET, the ECB announced that it lifted its waiver on minimum credit rating requirements for marketable instruments issued or guaranteed by Greece.

To put it another way, Greek banks can no longer exchange their junk-rated sovereign bonds for cash.

“The waiver allowed these instruments to be used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations despite the fact that they did not fulfill minimum credit rating requirements,” the ECB said in a press release. “The Governing Council decision is based on the fact that it is currently not possible to assume a successful conclusion of the programme review and is in line with existing Eurosystem rules.”

“In other words, the ECB doesn’t see Greece complying with existing bailout rules,” Bloomberg’s Lorcan Roche Kelly explained.

However, it’s not all bad. The ECB has another way for Greek banks to exchange their securities for liquidity. The cost of borrowing will however be higher.

“Liquidity needs of Eurosystem counterparties, for counterparties that do not have sufficient alternative collateral, can be satisfied by the relevant national central bank, by means of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) within the existing Eurosystem rules,” the ECB said.

“The move from the ECB today is a copy of the suspension of Greek debt that occurred in February 2012,” Kelly noted.

“For Greek banks, this move by the ECB will not directly be a disaster as they have reduced their exposure to the Greek sovereign since 2012 and so are less reliant on that debt as collateral,” Kelly argued.

Still, it appears to be more bad than good. And judging by the reaction in the currency and equity markets, investors and traders were hoping for better.

For the original article, click here.
ETF News

Upcoming Elections in Greece Make ETF Markets Volatile

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MarketMuse update courtesy of Todd Shriber from ETF Trends.

The Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSEArca: GREK) is off 3% to start 2015 and with anxiety running high that Greece is still a candidate for departure from the Eurozone, global equity market volatility and investors’ skittishness is on the rise.

With Greek elections slated for Jan. 25, global investors are understandably nervous about what the Eurozone will look like in the future. While Moody’s believes Greece’s Eurozone departure probability is not as high today as it was in 2012, there are still negative implications with such an event for fellow Eurozone nations.

Investors can mitigate Greek volatility with a familiar source: U.S.-focused low volatility ETFs, which outperformed traditional benchmarks in 2014. That group includes thePowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio (NYSEArca: SPLV).

“The relative performance of the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index during the Greek crisis in 2011 and 2012 offers insight into risk mitigation,” according to a recent note by PowerShares.

A favored measuring stick for gauging Eurozone volatility is 10-year government bond yields, but combining that with how SPLV’s underlying index performed against the S&P 500 during periods of elevated Eurozone stress proves instructive for investors.

In the chart below, “the red line shows the performance of the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index relative to the S&P 500 Index, based on weekly closing data. When we compare the red line with the blue line, we see that the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index outperformed the S&P 500 Index during each wave of credit stress in the Eurozone,” notes PowerShares.548x445xsplv.png.pagespeed.ic.RdYuDOmWxM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For original article from ETF Trends, click here.