Archives: October , 2014

Equities Options Marts Bustling: 1 Billion Contracts Trade in Q3

tradersmag  Trading in equities options is enjoying a resurgence, thanks to recent volatility in underlying cash markets, a burst in IPO activity and heightened hedging action in the stocks of companies such as Apple, Inc. according to reporting by TradersMag. Citing a TABB Group recent study, 0ptions mart trading volume exceeded 1 billion contracts in Q3. The third quarter gains represent a 4.9% increase from the second quarter total and an 8.2% increase from the year-earlier period.

options volumeIn its latest research, “U.S. Options Market Review: Third Quarter 2014,” Tabb Group also reported that U.S. options volume rebound was driven in part by a 15.8% jump in September’s total as retail fervor around Apple’s new product announcements, the Alibaba IPO and rising volatility brought monthly volume to 365.9 million contracts.

The report, compiled and written by TABB Group principal Andy Nybo, head of derivatives research, also noted that volatility spikes in late July and late September helped push volatility averages up in each month, with the CBOE index averaging 13.5 in both August and September – prompting more trading.

Weeklies trading, Nybo noted, remained strong in the third quarter with volume totaling 270 million contracts, up 7% from the second quarter total and 39% from the year-earlier period.

Noted Matt Gohd, market strategist at WallachBeth Capital, “Aside from volume spikes that typically come with increased volatility, I think there is clearly an increasing trend towards using equity option strategies for opportunistic, alpha capture and hedging purposes on the part of sophisticated investors as well as institutional fund managers.” Added Gohd, “The better news is that an increasing number of fiduciaries recognize that equity option strategies can play a crucial part of their overall approach to managing risk in a responsible way.”

To Russia With Love: Market Vectors Russia ETF RSX:US

bloomberg lp logoMarketsMuse update courtesy of extract from Bloomberg LP Elena Popina and Jackie Klauberg

Что ты собирáeшься дéлать с таки́ми больши́ми деньгáми?

(translation: What are you going to do with all that money?)

russia with loveInvestors are piling into the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking Russian equities at a record pace as the cheapest valuations in emerging markets and easing tension in Ukraine spur bets stocks will rebound.

The number of outstanding shares in the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX:US) has soared 59 percent since early August to 94.5 million, the highest level since April 2011. The demand is building after the fund tumbled (RSX:US) 12 percent in the last three months to trade near a five-year low.

The ETF is swelling as investors speculate that Russian stocks, which have dropped the most in the world this year as international sanctions curbed growth, will recover amid signs the seven-month conflict in Ukraine is easing. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday the country will recognize the results of parliamentary elections in the former Soviet republic as a cease-fire entered its eighth week.

“Waning geopolitical tensions and low valuations could be a good reason to invest and then cash in, once the valuations go up,” Ivan Manaenko, head of research at Veles Capital LLC in Moscow, said by phone on Oct. 27. “Any absence of fighting and any evidence of dialog is seen by investors as positive.”

To continue reading the story from Bloomberg LP, click here

Rare Events Taking Hold: Macro View Looking for Upside By Reading The Chinese Fortune Cookie

Below excerpt is closing conclusion courtesy of Oct 28 edition of Rareview Macro LLC publication “Sight Beyond Sight”

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

The Federal Reserve (FED) will make its policy announcement tomorrow. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will make its statement at the end of this week. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets next week. All three of them will be dovish at the end of the day.

Additionally, Jean Claude Juncker begins his presidency of the European Commission next week and that should embolden the call for fiscal help, which is required even more now that both Italy and France have changed their budget plans (see details below in Top Overnight Observations). There is no question that professionals we speak to are warming up to the idea of a larger fiscal announcement and this is tempering their bearish view on Europe to a degree.

Finally, with a positive US employment report, expectations of a Republican win in the US Mid-term Elections, and the positive seasonality associated with the start of a new month, it can be easily argued that the theme for the next two-weeks is global policy support.

The worst part of it is that everyone who was forced to reduce risk in October, and then missed the move back up, knows this is the market’s support structure regardless of the fact that QE finally ended yesterday.

This is not us being overly constructive on US equities or risk assets. After six weeks of one-way negative news flow and the sentiment shifting to extreme levels, there are now three weeks of events that should be supportive for risk. This is just the start of week number two in that period.

And that, combined with the lagging performance in the professional community, is enough to walk sentiment back even further, especially when countries like China and Sweden move out of nowhere to support the market on the upside.

MarketsMuse Editor: For the reader who requires further context re: above, the preface to above-noted thesis is… Continue reading

non-transparent ETFs

SEC SmackDown of Non-Transparent ETFs-No Secret Sauces!

In an effort to reign in a powerful campaign to launch secret sauce ETFs that have no business being used by ordinary investors, the SEC scored a smackdown on the creation of non-transparent ETFs in a recent ruling that blocks plans by ETF giant BlackRock as well as Precidian Investments to issue ETFs’ whose underlying constituents would otherwise be, well, non-transparent.

The topic of non-transparent ETFs has been a focus of several MarketsMuse articles in recent months. As reported last week by Bloomberg LP, The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rejected plans by BlackRock Inc. and Precidian Investments to open a new type of exchange-traded fund that wouldn’t disclose holdings daily, setting back efforts to bring more actively managed ETFs to market.

The SEC, in preliminary decisions announced yesterday, denied BlackRock’s September 2011 and Precidian’s January 2013 requests for exemptive relief from the Investment Company Act of 1940. The move puts on hold plans by the firms to start the first non-transparent ETFs.

The Precidian proposal falls “far short of providing a suitable alternative to the arbitrage activity in ETF shares that is crucial to helping keep the market price of current ETF shares at or close” to its net asset value, Kevin O’Neill, a deputy secretary at the SEC, wrote in the letter.

The ruling hinders plans by asset managers to sell funds run by traditional stock-picking managers in an ETF package. Firms including Capital Group Cos. have asked for similar regulatory approval as they seek to expand offerings in the fastest-growing product in the asset-management industry.

Money managers have been discouraged from introducing active ETFs, which combine security selection with the intraday trading and some of the cost-saving features of traditional ETFs, because the SEC’s requirement for daily disclosure of holdings would make it easy for competitors to copy, and traders to anticipate, a manager’s portfolio changes.

‘Not Surprised’

“We want to work with the SEC — we believe it’s part of the process,” Daniel McCabe, Precidian’s chief executive officer, said in a telephone interview. “We’re not surprised by the fact that they have questions, but questions can be answered.”

ETF providers must disclose holdings every day to enable market makers to execute trades that keep the share price in line with the underlying value of the fund’s assets. Firms including BlackRock, Precidian and Guggenheim Partners LLC proposed structures that they say would allow the funds to remain priced in line with assets, without revealing specific positions.

T. Rowe Price Group Inc. in Baltimore and Boston’s Eaton Vance Corp. are also among fund firms seeking SEC approval for non-transparent active ETFs. None of the applications has been approved.

“We are still pursuing our own proposal to offer non-transparent active ETFs,” Heather McDonold, a spokeswoman for T. Rowe, said in a telephone interview.

Commercial Opportunity

Melissa Garville, a spokeswoman for New York-based BlackRock, and Ivy McLemore, a spokesman for Guggenheim, declined to comment. Robyn Tice, a spokeswoman for Eaton Vance, and Elizabeth Bartlett for State Street Corp. didn’t immediately respond to an e-mail and telephone messages seeking comment.

BlackRock was one of the first U.S. fund managers to ask the SEC for approval, after spending three years crafting the product. Their leading role in seeking approval for a non-transparent active ETF has spurred excitement within asset management for the product’s prospects, according to Todd Rosenbluth, director of mutual-fund and ETF research at S&P Capital IQ in New York.

Mark Wiedman, BlackRock’s global head of its iShares ETF unit, said in May that the firm was confident the products would work, “but we don’t actually think it will be much of a commercial opportunity.”

For the full story from Bloomberg reporter Mary Childs, please click here

Blackrock ETF Blocked By SEC; Non-Transparency is Not Good Says Regulator..Duh…

MarketsMuse post courtesy of extract from report by Barron’s Johanna Bennet..our Editorial team leads in with “How could anyone think that an ETF (actively-managed or passive) that doesn’t disclose the underlying components to its investors could pass muster with regulators, no less investors?

The SEC has denied requests that would have allowed non-transparent active ETFs to hit the U.S. market.

In decisions issued earlier today, the regulatory agency denied applications by Precidian Investments and Blackrock’s (BLK) Spruce ETF Trust unit seeking to launch a novel type of actively managed exchange-traded fund that would not be required to disclose its portfolio holdings on a daily basis.

Investors can read the SEC rulings for Precidian here and review the Blackrock decison here.

Active ETFs are available in the U.S. But SEC rules require the funds disclose their holdings daily, which has discouraged firms from offering active products. The proposed non-transparent ETFs would disclose holdings quarterly, as mutual funds do, and often with a 60-day lag.

Precidian and Blackrock are among several firms proposing non-transparent active ETFs, including Eaton Vance (EV), State Street (STT) and T. Rowe Price (TROW). According to ETF.com, proponents of the rule change argue that it allows fund managers to protect their investing ideas and tactics and prevents front running.

Eaton Vance and State Street did not immediately respond to requests for comment. T. Rowe said it would still pursue its own proposal.

But at the heart of the SEC’s ruling regarding Precidian is a concern that the mechanism proposed to keep the market price of such funds in line with their net asset values is insufficient. As the SEC ruling reads: Continue reading

Europe’s First Bitcoin ETF Comes Courtesy of UK-Based Exchange “Coinfloor”

coindesklogo1    MarketsMuse salutes the news reporting below courtesy of industry news publication CoinDesk and reporter Daniel Palmer

Coinfloor has revealed plans to launch a bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) and accept additional fiat currencies as part of its efforts to expand internationally.

Starting immediately, the UK-based bitcoin exchange is allowing customers to make deposits in US dollars, euros and Polish zloty, in addition to the British pound.

The company framed the move as a way for it to transition from a UK-only exchange to a global player in the wider market for bitcoin exchanges.

Adam Knight, chairman and investor with the exchange, said:

“By expanding to dollars, euros and zloty, we are expanding from a UK-only focus to an international one, delivering more value to our UK customers and growing our user base internationally.”

Global plans Continue reading

Goldman Smacks ..It’s Lips re: ETFs; In Discussions to Acquire ETF Issuer IndexIQ

MarketMuse update courtesy of exclusive reporting by Reuters’ Jessica Toonkel

On the heels of this week’s announcement by Janus Capital to acquire ETF Issuer VelocityShares, presumably as a vehicle for Bill Gross to further package his fixed-income strategies, and this past June’s announcement from the London Stock Exchange to acquire index specialist Frank Russell Company, the bubbling market for ETF platforms is bubbling even more..as evidenced by this scoop from Reuters’ Jessica Toonkel:

(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs Group is in discussions to acquire IndexIQ, a Rye Brook, New York-based exchange-traded fund provider, according to three sources familiar with the situation.

The deal, if finalized, would enable Goldman to introduce passively managed and actively-managed exchange traded funds within months.

A Goldman Sachs Asset Management spokeswoman declined to comment. A call and e-mail to Adam Patti, the chief executive of IndexIQ, was not immediately returned.

Blood On The Streets; Buy The Bounce? A Sensible View…

Below extract from this a.m. edition of “Sight Beyond Sight”, the global-macro strategy insight courtesy of Stamford, CT-based, macro strategy “think tank” Rareview Macro LLC

Blood on the Streets Provides Counter-Trend Trading Opportunities
• Our 30,000 Foot Takeaways
• Model Portfolio Update: Closed EUROSTOXX and Dow Jones Index Short
• Model Portfolio Update: Opened Long S&P Structure
• Model Portfolio Update: Opened Eurodollar Interest Rate Steepener
• What Makes the Bounce Durable?
• Trading the Bounce
• US Equities Risk Profile for Next 48-Hours
• Watch List: Sugar, BRL/JPY and Nickel

Blood on the Streets Provides Counter-Trend Trading Opportunities

Baron Rothschild, an 18th century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with saying that “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” Since he ended up as one of the wealthiest men in the world at that time, he probably knew what he was talking about.

The objectives we laid out for risk assets have largely materialized. We would humbly point out that we were able to navigate these waters in the model portfolio fairly successfully, losing less than ~35 basis points on the week so far. With our large outperformance it is our intention to take advantage of the blood on the streets, as Rothschild would have done.

We wish we could say the same for others but our conversations are plagued with horror stories. Now, if we rub salt in someone’s wound or pinch the nerve of an investor that is just too bad. If that is you, then don’t read this edition. This is not us being cavalier. If we are wrong on some views or ideas we will keep an open mind and change our opinion, and will then simply reduce risk and move on. Continue reading

Macro View : Bears & Bulls & Sheep; The Pain Trade: Risk Reduction

MarketsMuse Editor Note: At risk of pounding the table too frequently by pointing to global macro strategy think tank “Rareview Macro” and their high-frequency of prescient postulating…the below excerpt from this a.m.’s edition of Rareview’s Sight Beyond Sight illustrates why this analyst is become the analyst ..For those confused by our use of ‘high frequency’, please note that we’ve filed a trademark for a new label “HFP” aka high-frequency prescience; and not to be confused with HFT aka high-frequency trading!. Premium merchandise including t-shirts, ball caps, and other items will be on sale soon!

“…The “True Pain Trade” Now Underway…Only Defence is Outright Risk Reduction”

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Yesterday, our main argument was that US equity investors needed to be mindful of chasing higher prices as that was a “bull trap”. We specifically said:

“The key point here is that the S&P 500 finally closed below the 200-day moving average after almost two years and the bounce off the break of that record streak can be large enough to make professionals believe that the weakness is now over.

Make no mistake that is the formula for how we get to 1800 in the S&P 500 next. You suck investors back in only for them to have to liquidate all over again. This time, however, the losses are too great and the even lower prices force them to sell the positions they held onto all the way down in the first place and were not willing to relinquish that time around.

The sentiment is no longer about whether this is a correction or not. It is now about whether it is a 10% or 15% correction.”

At some point our microphone may be louder than it is at the moment, but for now this warning was dismissed by the bulk of investors. At the time of writing the S&P futures (symbols: ESZ4) are down -1.8% from yesterday’s highs. That is the very definition of new longs being trapped at higher prices.

Before dismissing this view we would remind you that the majority of professionals in this business are sheep, and to remain part of the asset gathering business they have to always put themselves in a position to capture ~60% of any market move. And, as sheep would, that is what they tried to do yesterday.

Now most participants who use a Bloomberg terminal just walk into the office and look at the World Equity Index (WEI) screen. This is a lazy exercise as it only provides updates for the major developed markets. The point is that a smart investor should also look at the markets not included on the WEI screen (i.e. Greece) and the Emerging Market Equity Indices (EMEQ) and World Bond Markets (WB) pages.

Why? Continue reading

The Inextricable Liquidity Link Between HY ETFs and The World At Large

MarketsMuse Editor Note: Our editorial team leader has spent more than 15 minutes across the capital markets throughout almost 30 years and in the course of hearing and reading about all of the most recent initiatives to electronify the corporate bond markets so as to ‘get in front’ of the next liquidity crisis, our inspiring commander pointed us to this extract from last night’s edition of  “Sight Beyond Sight”

Liquidity Satire

Following last week’s price action where the lack of liquidity was a dominant theme in the credit markets we were reminded of the June 17th edition of Sight Beyond Sight. 

At the time a Financial Times article stated that “Federal Reserve officials have discussed imposing exit fees on bond funds to avert a potential run by investors, underlining regulators’ concern about the vulnerability of the $10tn corporate bond market.”

We thought we would reprint a fictitious exchange between the CEO of a large bank historically known for taking risk and the CIO of the world’s largest asset manager here given what is unfolding in credit currently.

Please forgive our attempt at satire; we mean to inform, and hopefully amuse, not insult.

Rick at Blackrock:  Hi Lloyd. Our “Yellen Index” is flashing imminent Fed tightening. We can’t tell you the inputs but this is our internally used proprietary index and is made up of the economic statistics she most favors and right now it is saying the Fed should already be tightening.”

Lloyd at GS:  So what does that mean to me Rick? We are an M&A and asset management shop now.

Rick at Blackrock:  Whatever helps you sleep at night, Lloyd. I need a bid on a 16 billion corporate bond portfolio ASAP.

Lloyd at GS:  We are not in that business anymore due to new capital requirements, balance sheet constraints and regulation.

Rick at Blackrock:  Lloyd, we go back a long-time and we pay your firm nine figures per year. I need a bid now.

Lloyd at GS:  What do you think this is Rick? The 2004 interest cycle? Send over a list and we will work it on an agency basis.

Rick at Blackrock:  Screw you Lloyd. I am calling my friends at Bank of America.

One hour later and a repeat of the same call… Continue reading

Junk Bond ETFs: SOS for HY Sector ($USO, $XOP, $JNK, $HYG)

etf-logo-finalBelow extract is courtesy of Oct 13 edition of ETFtrends.com and senior editor Todd Shriber

The United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO) is off 6.4% in the past month as West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark oil contract, ominously descents to $80 per barrel.

Oil’s slide has wrought havoc for futures-based ETFs, such as USO, as well as scores of equity-bae funds with energy sector exposure. After a 9.5% third-quarter loss, was once the top-performing sector in the S&P 500 earlier this year has now turned into one of the worst groups. [Dour View on Energy ETFs]

Of the 25 worst-performing exchange traded funds over the past month, 12 are equity-based energy funds. However, weakness in the energy sector could be problematic for some an asset class some investors may not be overlooking as a victim of energy’s slide: High-yield bonds and the corresponding ETFs.

Booming production at the Eagle Ford Shale and other shale formations has helped make Texas the envy of large state economies. That same theme has also been viewed as one of the more favorable long-term catalysts for ETFs ranging from the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSEArca: XOP) to the Market Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas ETF (NYSEArca: FRAK), but oil’s decline is threatening producers ability to profitably tap North American shale plays. [Fracking ETFs Foiled by Slumping Oil Prices]

“Texas is the anchor to shale production, employment growth, positive real estate trends, and overall positive moral. With Crude Oil at or below the cost of production for many project, the State with the highest economic multiple needs to contract,” said Rareview Macro founder Neil Azous in a research note.

But there’s more, including the threat falling oil prices pose to the high-yield bond market. Continue reading

Bill Gross Hire Further Bolstered by Janus; Announces Purchase of ETF Firm VelocityShares

Janus Capital Group Inc. said Monday it agreed to acquire exchange-traded product firm VelocityShares for at least $30 million.

The acquisition comes on the heels of Janus’ hiring of Bill Gross, one of the most successful bond investors in history, from Pacific Investment Management Co., the firm he co-founded in 1971. It positions Janus, a traditional mutual fund provider, in the fast-growing exchange-traded fund market.

“This acquisition positions Janus within the rapidly growing rules-based and active ETF universe, enhancing the customized solutions we can provide to our clients and enabling us to work with the growing segment of financial advisers and institutions focused on these instruments,” said Richard M. Weil, the Janus chief executive, in a statement.

Denver-based Janus will pay an “initial upfront cash consideration of $30 million” to buy VelocityShares parent company VS Holdings Inc. The Darien, Conn.-based firm manages $2 billion in ETFs.

Through the acquisition, Janus is adding clients including hedge funds as well as mutual and pension funds. Janus shares have risen 26 percent since Gross announced he would work for the Denver-based firm on the expectation that he would attract new investors to the company’s funds.

Puzzle Palace: What’s a Smart ETF Investor Supposed To Do Now?? Here’s a Rareview..

If this week’s volatility has unnerved you, take a deep breathe, sit back and consider the following assessments courtesy of global macro strategy think tank Rareview Macro and extracts of this a.m. edition of “Sight Beyond Sight.”

The Puzzle

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Today’s edition is not meant to be read as us preaching a gospel. Instead it is a collection of the thoughts we have gathered through a number of recent meetings/conversations with investors who take plenty of risk, and it has served us well in the past to just write down what people we respect are saying. Therefore, if at times the opinions below come across as too skewed one way or adopt the tone of a “bomb thrower” just take them with a grain of salt.

In the end, our biggest issue is that it is just a matter of a few hours to a couple of days before all investors catch up and put together a similar puzzle.

That is why you should read this entire edition even if it is lengthy and the only morning note you read. Continue reading

Wall Street Women On Top; 2014 Awards Go To…

tradersmag Industry publication Traders Magazine announced last night the 2014 “Wall Street Women: Celebration of Excellence” Awards and recognized 19 of The Street’s Finest Gals across 19 categories, including top gun awards for leadership, mentorship and trading.

Mary Clark, WallachBeth Capital
Mary Clark, WallachBeth Capital

Giving equal accolades to both buy-side and sell-side in the “most-watched” equities trading category, Blackrock’s Vivian Bakonyi, the firm’s”gal- to-go-to” for program trading shared the top slot with the sell-side’s “dame doyenne of ETF best execution,”  industry veteran Mary Clark of WallachBeth Capital.

For Mentor of The Year, Traders Mag judges also came to a split decision, with top honors shared by Citigroup’s MD Of Global Markets Christine Sperry and OhioPERs trader Joan Stack.

The full list of winners is available by clicking on this link to TradersMag. MarketsMuse extends Congrats to ALL of you!!

 

 

Crude Oil-The Russian Calculus; Deciphering The Macro-Strategy Tea Leaves

Below commentary is courtesy of Oct 8 a.m. notes from macro-strategy think tank Rareview Macro LLC’s “Sight Beyond Sight” and is provided as a courtesy to MarketsMuse readers who embrace smart insight.  For those with interest in or exposure to the assortment of globally-focused ETFs across asset classes, we think you’ll welcome this content…If subscribing to newsletters from leading experts is not your ‘bag’ (regardless of how fairly-priced Rareview’s is), you should want to follow Rareview Macro’s twitter feed

Growth Scare Expanding Now…Large Cap Equity Indices Most at Risk
• Russia Enters the Vice-Grip
• EU Growth Profile: Cross-Asset Correlation to Reconnect & Lead EURO STOXX 50 Index Lower
• US Growth Profile: Pillars of Housing, Autos & Texas to Lead S&P 500 Index Lower
• China: H and A Share Markets Continue to Diverge…A Share Market is Correct
• Model Portfolio Update: Taking Profit or Restructuring Brazil (EWZ) Equity Position

Overnight

Right now everyone has a favorite metric that points to further disinflation. But, at the end of the day, the real world only really cares about one – Crude Oil.

Brent Crude Oil has made another new low and WTI Crude Oil has taken out the January low.

We are highlighting this first today for a number of reasons. Continue reading

Now We Have an International IPO ETF…

CT – October 7, 2014 – Renaissance Capital LLC, a global IPO investment advisor providing institutional research, investment management and indexing services, announced today the launch of the Renaissance International IPO ETF, an exchange traded product that tracks an index of newly public international companies prior to their inclusion in core global equity portfolios. The Renaissance International IPO ETF began trading today on NYSE Arca under the ticker symbol “IPOS.”

Kathleen Smith, photo courtesy of Bloomberg LP
Kathleen Smith, photo courtesy of Bloomberg LP

“The launch of the Renaissance International IPO ETF, responds to investor demand for systematic exposure to newly listed IPOs in a low-cost tax- efficient exchange-traded structure,” said Kathleen Smith, Chairman of Renaissance Capital. “When added to core equity holdings, this portfolio of new equities provides investors with unique returns and more complete coverage of the full set of public equities. The Renaissance International IPO ETF when coupled with the Renaissance IPO ETF (NYSE symbol: IPO) provides investors with access to the entire global IPO market.” Continue reading

Macro-Strategy Insight to Latest Events in Hong Kong and..”What about $GLD?”

MarketsMuse Editorial Note: Below is extract from Oct 1 edition of macro-strategy commentary courtesy of Rareview Macro LLC’s daily publication “Sight Beyond Sight”..We often profile this content from macro strategy expert and author Neil Azous, simply because since we first started following SBS commentary, it has become one of those most highly-regarded independent research pieces subscribed to by more than a few of the “sharpest knives in the drawer.”

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

“….One simple way to measure the market impact of the growing pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong is to look at future assumptions for corporate dividend streams.

Specifically, we are watching the HSCEI Dividend Point Index Futures (symbol: DHCZ5) that trade on the Hong Kong Futures Exchange.

Because most of the “terminal outcome” is already in the price of the futures contract, based on the modeling of expected dividend payouts, the front-month futures contract should generally show the most acute reaction to a fast-developing live event. Put another way, the “gap risk” is much higher at the front versus the back of the futures curve.

Now, to be fair, this product is generally used by regional investors with $50-300 million in AUM as the futures are not liquid enough for the larger players. However, the fact that smaller is at times synonymous for “weaker hands” highlights that the local and small player is not yet really concerned by the protests. And what that tells us is that the possible contagion from these protests is actually lower than most people think, at least for today. Continue reading