Archives: April , 2014

Market Structure: The Great “Flash Boys” Debate and Putting the Genie Back in The Bottle

tumblr_m66pvmdFe61rog4ypo1_500  MarketsMuse Editor Note:  Though we typically focus on using a high-touch approach to aggregating the more topical  and poignant ETF, Options and Macro-Strategy news items, the  nearly never-ceasing diatribes re market structure and the impact of “high-frequency trading” which has either been incited or simply elevated by Michael Lewis’s book “Flash Boys” inspires us to distill the multitude of most recent opinion articles and punditry promoted by the ever-increasing universe of “content experts.”

In that spirit, we point our readers to 2 different pieces worth picking over:

1. For the ETF-focused audience, this week’s published comments from ETF.com’s Dave Nadig, “Great Flash Boys Idea IEX Doesn’t Matter” is a solid read for RIAs and the universe of investment managers who use exchange-traded funds. As always, Dave frames his observations and insight in a thoughtful, non-conflicted and erudite manner. Here’s the link to the ETF.com posting.

2. For institutional equity fund managers, institutional equity brokers and whomever else might be intrigued by the latest “survey of capital market professionals” conducted by ConvergEX, one of the major institutional order execution platforms. Their study finds that 70% of those canvassed believe the market structure is “unfair” to them. The study was published this week and since re-published by an assortment of industry media websites, including TABB Forums, and starts with the following: Continue reading

Smart Money Says: No Gold Needed As Capex Spending Kicks In to Global Economy

For readers focused on expert views re: the precious metals, and in particular Gold, below a.m. note courtesy of macro-themed analyst Paul Krake to his “View From The Peak” audience of institutional investment managers provides a “bid-on” to market observations made last week by Neil Azous, principal of “bespoke macro strategy boutique” Rareview Macro LLC, and the publisher of “Sight Beyond Sight” :

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

“..Short gold has been one constant theme for VFTP for the past 18 months and I do not see any reason to adjust this structural stance. The reasons to be short gold are long and varied but they all go back to my basic theme that as the world becomes less risky, the need for safe haven assets declines. If real interest rates are on the rise then gold will decline. A more sophisticated thesis is being proposed by my good friend Neil Azous from Rareview Macro, an extremely thoughtful and thorough daily overview of the investment landscape (www.rareviewmacro.com). Neil’s argument revolves around a revitalized global capex cycle that will be driven by a spurt in bank lending and the global economy playing catch up after five years of underinvestment across the developed world. We have this expressed via our long energy (XLE) / short consumer discretionary (XLY) basket but short gold is also an excellent expression of what will be the end result of this recalibration of the capex cycle: higher global growth and higher real interest rates…”

Courtesy of View From The Peak
Courtesy of View From The Peak

 

Paul Krake’s observations are available via http://www.viewfromthepeak.com.hk/.

The “Sight Beyond Sight” newsletter authored by Neil Azous is distributed to leading investment managers, Tier 1 hedge funds and top gun traders across the universe of sell-side, cash trading desks. Additional info at www.sightbeyondsight.com

 

Finally: Debate re High-Frequency Trading Includes A Tangible Solution

tabb forum logo Excerpt courtesy of TABB Forums April 21 submission by Chris Sparrow, CEO of “Market Data Authority” a consultancy that provides guidance within the areas of equities market structure, transaction cost analysis and “best execution.”

MarketsMuse Editor note:  below snippet is a good preview to the most recent “short-form white paper” written by Mr. Sparrow in connection with the ongoing brouhaha re high-frequency trading aka HFT. The submission itself inspired a broad assortment of comments from industry experts..and, having been considered a “market structure expert” in a prior life, MarketsMuse editor says “overlook the ‘techno talk’, its worth hitting ‘read more.’

“Eliminating Unfairness: Creating a Protocol For Synchronized Period Trading”

The goal of this piece is to describe at a high level a protocol that could be introduced to allow for a multi-venue system operating synchronized batch auctions. The motivation for this protocol is to eliminate any advantage from the asymmetric distribution of order book information – i.e., trade and quote updates. No attempt is undertaken to control other types of information that may be relevant to trading.

The protocol should allow for competition of trading venues and not discriminate against any type of market participant. Further, the protocol is suggested only as an option that could be used by venues that want to participate.

A strong motivation for creating the protocol is the perceived “unfairness” that is present in the existing market structure, where some participants may be able to get faster access to trade and quote information than others. The result has been a perceived erosion of confidence in the equity markets. Other externalities that exist in the current system include the need to store vast amounts of data generated from continuous trading and a technological arms race.

Continue reading

Don’t Sell in May and Go Away…

rareview sbs logo   Excerpts from this a.m. edition of Rareview Macro “Sight Beyond   Sight” could be comforting to those who “don’t want to sell in May and go away”

* tickers referenced in the a.m. note include :

• The Argument for S&P 500 to march to 1950 and beyond … the risks of a “deflationary shock” have also begun to be priced back out of the market. Clearly there have been many “false starts” on this theme in the past, and this could just be another one. But the difference this time is that the conditions are now in place for stabilization in the rate of inflation.
• a lot of professionals de-risked and the assets that were sold-off will need to be re-redeployed elsewhere. The key point is that the S&P 500 will have a difficult time falling beyond what already occurred in April without those assets being first reinvested.

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

• Thematically, we are very sympathetic to the view that a fundamental shift in the market will occur over the next 6-18 months: business-to-business (B2B) will benefit more than business-to-consumers (B2C).
• As a result of this migration into capital expenditures, the top down investment views expressed around housing and corporate share repurchases will be paired back as investors cannot hold all of these macro themes at once. To be clear, this is not a call that buybacks will slow down materially or that the stocks that have benefited the most from this capital redeployment will start to fall. It is a call that buyback strategies will underperform the capex theme even though both could rise at the same time

• the traditional “sell in May and go away” rule will not hold true coming back from the holiday break this year.
• We believe that alongside a basket of long “capex plays”, i.e. US energy and the US Dollar, there is also room for a short Gold position
• We initiated a starter short position in Gold last night

To read the entire morning missive, you’ll need to get your subscription to Sight Beyond Sight…10-day free trial with no credit card required can be secured via www.sightbeyondsight.com

ETF “BackTesting” Often = “Over-Fitting”: Is It Bait and Switch?

barrons  Below excerpt courtesy of Brendan Conway’s April 17 Focus on Funds

 

MarketsMuse Editor Note: Brendan’s article deserves front page focus, but in the process of publishing this piece, a bigger story has emerged and the internet has been overwhelmed by stories that suggest pro-Putin militants in East Ukraine are distributing flyers that purport to come from local government officials with formal announcement that Jews in the city will be required to reqister with the local government, upon which they will be subjected to new taxes or face deportation. MarketsMuse Editorial team says : “Sounds like a Putin-supported strategy intended to cause more chaos, and in turn, provide Putin the perfect storm in which he can defend a larger action on the part of Russia..under the auspices of having to come in and protect Russian (Jews) among others..”

Now on to Brendan Conway’s observations re: “ETF BackTesting”

Brendan Conway
Brendan Conway

“…..It’s negligence, or worse, when an investment manager’s innovative-looking strategy is the result of too much quantitative trial-and-error.

That’s the argument in a notable new study flagged by Stephen Foley of the Financial Times. “Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism: The Effects of Backtest Overfitting on Out-of-Sample Performance” argues that what happens behind the scenes in the development of quantitative strategies is a major problem in investment management.

“Backtest” simply means reviewing historical returns to try to divine how a new strategy might perform in the future. The method has become bread-and-butter in the launch of many new ETFs.

Investors don’t know how many hypotheses managers examined before finding the perfect-looking backtest, a process which turns out to matter greatly, write David H. Bailey, Jonathan M. Borwein, Marcos Lopez de Prado and Qiji Jim Zhu. “The higher the number of configurations tried, the greater is the probability that the backtest is overfit,” they write. “Overfit” means the data has been tortured until it yielded something that looks nice.

If an investment process is driven by what looks good historically, there’s a greater chance the attractive-looking result is just a fluke.

Sure enough, a Vanguard Group study found a while back that backtested ETFs — which look great in the historical data — on average lagged the market after the real-world launch.

From Foley’s discussion: Continue reading

51% Of Pension Managers Say NO to High-Frequency Trading

pensioninvestmentlogo   Excerpt below courtesy of Pensions&Investment April 14 edition, story by Christine Williamson

Controversy over high-frequency trading, fomented by Michael Lewis’ new book, highlights the conflict many chief investment officers experience over the practice.

On the one hand, both pension fund executives and their external money managers are grateful that the development of electronic trading and the competitive exchanges established to serve the growing high-frequency trading segment has dramatically lowered trading costs.

On the other hand, it’s maddening for many CIOs to suspect their portfolios’ returns might be harmed from front-running by high-frequency trading algorithms.

A Pensions & Investments’ online reader poll conducted last week showed 51.5% of respondents believe high-frequency trading is bad for institutional portfolios, while 17.1% said it’s good. The remainder said it was neither good nor bad.

For the full story and who said what, please visit P&I

 

Macro-Strategist Rareview: Pause in Mean Reversion

rareview sbs logo Below excerpt courtesy of this a.m. edition of Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight”
“..The call today by the professional community for a retracement of the recent weakness in Equities is very loud…

This viewpoint disregards the fact that S&P 500 futures are already 2.5% higher than Monday’s intra-day low. The key point being is that with the last price in index futures at ~1848 the market is right back at the 50% retracement of the April high (~1892) and low (~1803).

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

In our view this thought process misses the point. The real takeaway is that after weeks of instability many are finally resigned to a pause in the mean reversion of last year’s strategies. This also includes a contraction in the very high intra-day volatility. Meaning, the peak-to-trough index ranges should narrow into option expiration.

While we do not fully agree with the shift in sentiment we are mindful that the price action argues in favor of a retracement in certain strategies and we will adjust some positioning in the model portfolio to be prudent..

Firstly, the model portfolio pre-market closed out the entire short Small Cap (IWM) and long Large Cap (SPY) relative value strategy. We covered the IWM short for 112.22 and sold the SPY long at 185.36. While we still believe this is a great intermediate-term theme the fact is that we never thought we would be able to generate more than 5% of outperformance this quickly relative to when we deployed the strategy on March 19th. We will look to re-initiate this position in the near future if it were to retrace 3-4%.

Continue reading

Best ETF Market-Making Award Goes To..

In coetfcomlogonnection with the 1st Annual ETF Awards hosted by ETF.com, the world’s leading authority on exchange-traded funds, agency execution firm WallachBeth Capital was selected “ETF Market- Maker of the Year” by a panel of judges representing prominent firms from across the ETF industry. The announcement was made during a gala dinner held on March 20th at New York’s Chelsea Piers and attended by more than 300 industry members.

According to ETF.com Founder and CEO Jim Wiandt, “The award to WallachBeth for market maker of the year recognizes the firm that has done the most to improve investor outcomes throughout education, support, services, innovation and outreach.” Runners-up for the category included Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Jane Street Capital and KCG. A total of 23 categories were voted upon by the ETF.com judge’s panel.

In making the award, the ETF.com judges noted, “While many firms share credit for helping ETF investors understand ETF liquidity, few have been more dedicated to the task of educating clients and improving outcomes than WallachBeth. The prototypical agency broker, it uses strong Street connections to source liquidity for clients, allowing the world’s best market makers to compete for each order. The agency approach—where WallachBeth is always on the side of the client—resonates with advisors, who often need hand-holding when they enter the fast-moving world of ETF trading.”

Regulators Take Aim at Maker-Taker Fees; High-Frequency Trading v. Brokers’ Fiduciary Obligations

wsjlogoExcerpt courtesy of April 15 edition of WSJ and reporters Scott Patterson and Andrew Ackerman.

A fee system that is a major source of revenue for exchanges and some high-frequency trading firms is coming under the heightened scrutiny of regulators concerned that market prices are being distorted, according to top Securities and Exchange Commission officials.

SEC officials, including some commissioners, are considering a trial program to curb fees and rebates they say can make trading overly complex and pose a conflict of interest for brokers handling trades on behalf of big investors such as mutual funds.

At issue are “maker-taker” fee plans, which pay firms that “make” orders happen—often high-frequency trading firms that specialize in trading strategies designed to capture payments. The plans charge firms that “take” trades—typically big investment firms looking to buy or sell a chunk of stock or hedge funds making bets on short-term price swings.

The trial program would eliminate maker-taker fees in a select number of stocks for a period to show how trading in those securities compares with similar stocks that keep the payment system.

For the full story from WSJ, please click here.

ETF Adoption Continues at Brisk Pace

marketsmedia logo  Excerpt courtesy of MarketsMedia

Providers of ETFs and mutual funds are using targeted marketing approaches to match the right products with the right customers.

With ETFs use climbing among active investors, both retail and institutional, packagers of ETFs view the product as a low-cost vehicle for investors to access alternative strategies such as those employed by hedge funds, many of which act as sub-advisers for the ETFs.

ETF use among registered investment advisors (RIAs) has grown nearly 27% annually over the past 5 years, according to research firm Cerulli Associates anticipates this growth to continue.

“The allocation to ETFs among RIAs grew 48% from 2011 to 2012,” said Kenton Shirk, associate director at Cerulli. “The RIA channel is an extremely attractive opportunity for asset managers.”

ETFs gained popularity as a cost-effective method to achieve diversification, but with increased adoption they have evolved to cover a wide variety of investment strategies.

“ETFs provide an easy way for managers to offer out products to alternative investors,” said David Beth, president and chief operating officer at WallachBeth Capital. “The ETF wrapper is very easy and transparent.”

davidbethmm
David Beth, President / COO WallachBeth Capital

Fund manager Direxion offers leveraged and inverse ETFs for active traders looking to execute short-term trading strategies.

“We consider ourselves a provider of alternative investment strategies,” said Andy O’Rourke, Direxion’s chief marketing officer. “We also have a few strategy-based non-leveraged ETFs that they have rules-based indexes, such as KNOW, which is an ETF that tracks the buying activity of corporate insiders on the secondary market.”

Direxion recently unveil a marketing campaign designed to inform experienced active traders about the potential benefits of the firm’s 3X leveraged ETFs. A departure from simply highlighting the flexibility of trading in either direction, the marketing campaign’s 60-second television commercial invites active traders to join “The Fellowship of the Bold.” Continue reading

US Interest Rates: Lower For Longer

Below excerpts courtesy of “Quigley’s Corner”, a daily summary of debt capital market activity from Mischler Financial Group’s Ron Quigley

On the “Backpedal”, “Reverse”, “Renege”, “U-Turn”, “About-Face”…………and the FED

The week’s biggest data point belongs to the release of today’s FOMC Minutes. Here are the major talking points:

o Several Fed officials said “forecasts overstated the pace of rate increases.”
o The FOMC minutes did not mention a “rate rise six months after the end of QE.”
o Most FOMC participants saw inflation rising to the 2% Fed goal.
o Minutes revealed “slack” persisting in the Labor market and a gradual decline in unemployment.
o A continued housing recovery was sighted..
o Several members identified trends that pose financial stability risks.

So, what’s it all mean? Great question, simple answer:

Continue reading

Unemployment Data and The Goat Rodeo: Sight Beyond Sight

For macro-strategy mindsets, the below excerpt from this morning’s note courtesy of Sight Beyond Sight author Neil Azous provides a compelling read…

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

“…Sunday, April 6th is a “Bradley Turn Date”. The Bradley siderograph – a device to predict the stock market developed in the 1940s – does not reliably predict the direction of asset prices but it does identify turning points in the financial markets (stocks, bonds, bonds, commodities) within a time window of +/- 4 calendar days.

While we don’t normally subscribe to cycle theories or astrology or any other kind of mumbo-jumbo, we will pay attention to anything that supports higher equity volatility and US Dollar strength.

Again, we have no edge or strong view on the chances of an outsized employment number today. However, our conviction is high that a very larger number will turn into a “Goat Rodeo” for asset prices. A Goat Rodeo, for those not familiar with the term, or who have never seen one, is a chaotic situation usually involving several different players, each with a different agenda/vision/perception of what’s going on. It is usually very difficult, no matter how hard you try, to instill any sense or order and 100 things need to go right. The goats just won’t follow orders.

A lot of noise is being made about performance in the professional community. The speculation is that the mean reversions of last year’s winning strategies – Small vs. Large Caps, Growth vs. Value, EM vs. DM, EU vs. US Equities, Beta/Momentum vs. defensive – was a five standard deviation event that led to the largest monthly drawdown in March in long/short equity performance since 2008 for many top-tier funds.

While many would disagree with our view, we would argue that many also do not know how these funds actually operate. The reality is that “piggy-back capital” is very much in vogue in the hedge fund community. While those who borrow the work of true investors (i.e. weak handed longs) may have sold shares, the key funds that are being highlighted currently as losers have likely sold very little. The reasons for this are that a significant portion of their fund consists of partner money and they have seen this movie many times over their storied careers. They care less about their investor base at this stage of their careers, partly because they already have a large asset base, but most importantly, because nothing has changed in their fundamental views around the names that they hold. In fact, many of these companies are severe price pressure are likely to beat earnings in the upcoming season. The point is that until their fundamental thesis changes, they have made a living for decades managing 10-20% drawdowns at the single security or index level and they are not fazed by what is happening in the markets right now. What does this mean?….” 

For the entire commentary and to follow the daily analysis from Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight, please click here (subscription required, but free trial is available)

Flash Boys Fight Over High Frequency: Op-Ed

MarketsMuse Editor Note: Having close on 3 decades “habitating” within the financial industry’s sell-side, this greybeard former trader turned opinionator and postulator is certainly fascinated by the spirited debate over “high-frequency trading”, not only because most of those arguing for and/or against HFT can only selectively point to lop-sided studies to defend their respective arguments , but the escalating war of words (over the Battle of the Transformers) has more recently captured the attention of the always beloved experts of financial industry market structure and trading technology: the Federal Bureau of Investigation. If there were an agency less qualified than the FBI to ask the right questions and determine whether any laws have been broken, it might be the always-conflicted and lobbyist-influenced SEC; particularly when real industry experts have vehemently pointed to an industry practice that truly undermines the credibility of financial markets: retail brokerages and custodians selling their customers orders to “preferenced market-makers” in exchange for cash..  [Then again, given that FBI Director Jim Comey came to his new job after serving as General Counsel for the world’s biggest and most high tech hedge fund, the debate about who is most conflicted becomes more complex]…..Ironically, the biggest beneficiary of the practice of payment for order flow is Charles Schwab (only because they’re arguably the biggest of the major custodians, but all others who do the same benefit accordingly)..whose Chairman/CEO announced this week that “HFT is a cancer that is plaguing the industry..” Clearly someone who likes to have their cake and eat it too.

In trading market lingo, “Bid Repeats”; the largest of the industry’s retail brokerage platforms–ostensibly those who have a fiduciary obligation to secure best execution on behalf of its clients when routing orders to the marketplace, are selling those orders to favored proprietary traders, a group whose primary obligation is to their own P&L, NOT the interests of public investors who would like to presume they are receiving best execution on their orders. Adding insult to injury, customers of these brokerages who know better and request their orders be routed to agency-only execution firms (whose role is limited to fiduciary broker and to secure true best execution by canvassing all market participants for best bids and offers) are rebuffed and faced with egregious fees  on any orders in which customers ask the custodian to “step-out” or “trade-away” to specific agency-only firms.

While most objective financial industry experts (if not experts from any other industry) would liken the practice of payment for order flow as a kickback scheme that undermines the notion of ‘fairness’, this practice, which clearly is antithetical to the notion of “fiduciary obligation” has gone virtually unmentioned by the media, and those from within the industry who have tried to raise this flag have been futily dismissed by advertiser-influenced media platforms, if not regulators responsible for overseeing fair and orderly market practices.

All of that said, and for an assortment of reasons that has led to market fragmentation,  the existing landscape enables a quagmire of complexity when trying to distill what makes sense, especially when those who have the biggest role in market efficiency are those who are focused on making dollars for themselves, not sense.

Perhaps one of the week’s best observations can be found not by replaying clips from heated debates broadcast on CNBC, but in an op-ed in today’s New York Times courtesy of Philip Delves Broughton, who, in critiquing the impact of Michael Lewis’s new book “Flash Boys”, frames the issue of HFT in a very intelligent way. His opinion piece,  “Flash Boys for the People” can be found by clicking on this link.

 

April Not For Fools: A Macro View

Below excerpt courtesy of Sight Beyond Sight a.m. notes from macro strategy expert Neil Azous.

Neil Azous, Principal /Rareview Macro
Neil Azous, Principal  Rareview Macro LLC

 

“…Just because today is the start of a new quarter for investors that does mean anyone should expect a pause or a reversal in the themes that ended the last quarter. If anything, the reset argues that real money has a new green light to continue. The key risk is that stronger US data this week actually accelerates the rebalancing.

Yesterday, we highlighted that after being down 7 of the last 9 days and having a 9-day RSI of ~22 the stock Amazon (Symbol: AMZN) needed to hold its 200-day moving average. None of that happened. AMZN closed lower again, broke the 200-DMAVG and now has an RSI of 21.

Today, the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index Futures (Symbol: MESM4) are +92 bps, the EURO STOXX 50 Index (Symbol: SX5E) is +65 bps and the S&P 500 futures (Symbol: ESM4) are +24 bps. The key point here is that the Emerging Markets will likely start the quarter outperforming the Developed Markets, and Europe, both in US Dollar and local currency terms, will likely outperform the US.

Again, these are only three highlights from the many themes of last year that are now reverting and like yesterday, where Small Cap under-performance paused today, we could easily see another one-off theme pause. For example, China Internet (Tencent +4.5% last night) could be a read through for US technology to bounce. But the main point is that on aggregate the start of the second quarter should carry on from where the first quarter ended….”

Sight Beyond Sight is a subscription-based, daily macro-strategy viewpoint authored by Neil Azous and published by Rareview Macro LLC.  Subscribers include a unique assortment of leading hedge funds and Tier 1 investment managers. For additional information, please visit www.rareviewmacro.com