Archives: November , 2012

Knight Capital and ETFs.. Setting the Stories Straight.

indexuniverseexcerpt from Olly Ludwig’s Nov 30 column

You might think that having Knight Capital in play could be a threat to ETF trading. Luckily it’s not.

Still, it struck me that thinking through the possibilities surrounding an acquisition of Knight by Getco or Virtu is a worthwhile exercise.

After all, Knight is the biggest ETF market maker out there, and if Knight’s transition to new ownership is fraught with unexpected twists and turns, does that mean that many exchange-traded funds, especially the smaller, less liquid ones Knight shepherds, won’t get the love they need to trade cleanly?

Specifically, I found myself wondering if ETF trading would be adversely affected if Reggie Browne and his team at Knight don’t land on their feet but rather somewhere else on the Street.

If you’re wondering who Reggie Browne is, you need to read Ari Weinberg’s story in Forbes about Browne. Calling Browne “The Godfather of ETFs” did elicit derisive guffaws in some pockets of the ETF industry, but the piece makes an important point: Knight and Browne are big fish in ETF trading.

Knowing that makes the acquisition of Knight by Getco or perhaps Virtu entirely understandable. What upstart trading firm wouldn’t want that feather in its cap? It would be a strong signal that whoever ends up buying Knight has grown up and moved out of the sandbox and into the shark tank.

Incidentally, our thinking here at IndexUniverse on this potential acquisition of Knight is that this is pretty much a corporate story, that Browne and his team are likely to make a smooth transition to wherever they end up, and the world of ETF trading really won’t be affected whatsoever (MarketsMuse editor note: MAYBE)

Still, as I said, I thought it might be worthwhile to look at the story behind the story.

And the crux of that story is that the ETF trading operation—that is, Reggie and his team—is a huge piece of the motivation to do this deal.

MarketsMuse Editor Note–the full IndexUniverse article can be viewed here—but before clicking away..read  a superb comment on that article–and its worth re-broadcasting:

One critical observation that has NOT been made re: role of ‘Godfather Knight’ (or any proprietary trading firm) within the ETF landscape: Knight is a Market-Making firm–NOT a broker. Brokers work as fiduciary agents For customers, market makers (aka MMs) trade Against customers’ best interests. This is NOT a slanted bash on MMs. Having been one for many years (as well as having been a major exchange specialist—a now antiquated role that mandated putting customer interests ahead of all else), MMs Absolutely Do Perform an Integral Role within the ecosystem….. But, MMs (Knight and all others) trade at risk when it suits THEIR profit purpose, not because of an altruistic desire to simply facilitate a customer’s investment/trading strategy.

Given the massive institutional use of ETFs, PMs and RIAs, as well as their custodians should [hopefully] hold themselves to a particularly high fiduciary obligation to secure the best available price in the marketplace when buying/selling. If only evidenced by the ongoing attention on Knight, it would seem that many investors (or maybe its just the media) have yet to focus on the notion of aggregated prices and better brokers who systematically canvass all ‘liquidity centers” to capture the best aggregated price based on all of the players interests. It really is that simple, but few people want to deliver this message for various political reasons.

In the ETF world, MMs “accommodate” a customer order ONLY if/when (i) they have first determined that they can capture a risk-free ‘spread’ that exists either at a ‘dark pool’ accessible by the market-maker but not the customer, or (ii) when there is a risk free spread between the cash ETF and the underlying components thanks to the fragmentation of screen-based markets. More simply—if the MM is selling the cash ETF to a customer, the MM will concurrently be buying each of the underlying components –effectively ‘creating’ the ETF-but  only when the aggregate price of the underlying components is less than the price of the cash ETF. Could the customer do the same arbitraging? That depends. But they can certainly use a broker that canvasses the market properly.  

Any market that relies on, or has come to depend exclusively on one primary player is not a marketplace. More importantly- when one player is perceived as the dominant in the space, any snafu will wreak havoc on the market itself and the credibility of the product. In Knight’s case we can look to 2 recent events that created temporary havoc—which is presumably why this firm is about to come under new ownership (again).  

iShares’ Eye On Canada..Market to Double in Size

Courtesy of Eric Lim/Bloomberg LP

IShares expects Canada’s exchange- traded fund market will double to about C$100 billion ($100.8 billion) in three to five years and the company plans to offer products and partnerships with firms such as Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF) to maintain its No. 1 rank.

IShares Canada, a unit of BlackRock Inc. (BLK), the world’s largest asset manager, is planning to unveil at least one new product in 2013, said Mary Anne Wiley, managing director and head of the Toronto-based company. The strategy for 2013 will be producing “themed” ETFs as opposed to those defined by geography, she said.

“We don’t need another Canadian equity ETF,” Wiley said in an interview at Bloomberg’s Toronto office. “Where I see demand is in strategy-based, theme-based products, income and yields. That could be done by combining equity and fixed income rather than going after a particular segment.”

The ETF industry in Canada had total assets under management of about C$54 billion as of October, according to iShares. The industry has grown 20 percent to 30 percent a year over the past five years, Wiley said. The Toronto Stock Exchange says it offered the world’s first ETF in 1990, tied to the TSE 35 Index. “We could double that size in three to five years, easily,” she said in the Nov. 21 interview. “More and more investors are using ETFs as part of their core investing.”

Assets under management grew 26 percent this year through October, with fixed-income products accounting for about 50 percent of net new funds, Wiley said.

IShares Canada says it holds a 76 percent share of the ETF market, or C$41.3 billion in assets under management. The company sells 88 ETFs, accounting for about a third of the 258 total ETFs available in Canada. The Top 10 largest ETFs belong to the iShares family.

“It’s still a small part of the pot, so we have a long way to go,” Wiley said.

Kevin Gopaul, chief investment officer with BMO Asset Management Inc., who runs the company’s ETF and mutual fund businesses, said iShares’ position as leader is not guaranteed. Continue reading

Attn: Pension Fund Mgrs: ETF Trading Choices Can Affect Costs and Execution

  By Ari Weinberg | November 26, 2012    

Pension fund managers considering expanding their use of exchange-traded funds must always bear in mind that trading ETFs is entirely different from trading stocks.

Entering a transaction without a clear understanding of the market dynamics for the ETF and the underlying stocks can be costly without the right precautions. The market impact can be more than the fee in basis points cited in the funds’ materials.

“The implementation of a trade is very important and, in some cases overlooked,” said Tim Coyne, head of ETF capital markets for State Street Global Advisors in New York. SSgA sponsors nearly $300 billion in U.S. exchange-traded products. Only in the past few years, with the surge in ETF issuance and trading, have market makers and institutional agency brokers begun to offer ETF-specific implementation shortfall models.

One of the selling points for ETFs is that they can be more liquid to trade than their underlying constituents, but this is only the case in a handful of funds, said Alex Hagmeyer, vice president for data analytics at Markit in Naperville, Ill.

Estimating market impact — the spread from arrival price to final price — to include the notion of ETF creations and redemptions can be complicated by market conditions. And the dynamics of ETF trading have several brokers and data analysts refiguring their implementation shortfall estimates, taking into account that liquidity in the ETF is not the same as the total liquidity available to the investor.

For pension fund managers passing through ETFs in a manager transition or when adding a liquidity layer in broad-market ETFs, market impact models may seem a distant concern but basis points on large transactions can add up.

“A lot of ETFs are quoted by market-making algorithms,” said Chris Hempstead, director of ETF Execution at WallachBeth Capital in New York. For this reason, the impulse to get filled instantaneously by sweeping the limit order book can have a negative impact on an ETF trade.

Mr. Hempstead paints a scenario of an ETF order for 10,000 shares — 1,000 shares filled at the displayed price and 9,000 a nickel away. “If the quotes fill in around your trade (back to the original price), you probably paid too much,” said Mr. Hempstead.

For the entire P&I article by Ari Weinberg, please visit Pensions&Investments online

Market Neutral ETF Debuts

    Courtesy of Ronald Delegge, ETFGuide.com

IndexIQ introduced the the IQ HedgeMarket Neutral Tracker ETF (QMN) in October. QMN is designed to offer investors liquid, transparent market neutral hedge fund exposure.

QMN will seek to track, before fees and expenses, the performance characteristics of the IQ Hedge Market Neutral Index (IQHGMN), part of IndexIQ’s proprietary IQ Hedge family of benchmark hedge fund replication indexes. The IQ Market Neutral Index (IQHGMN) has live performance dating from September 2008.

“Market neutral is one of the largest hedge fund investment styles, both in terms of the number of funds and in the amount of assets being put to work,” said Adam Patti, IndexIQ CEO. “After incubating the index underlying QMN for four years, we felt it was an excellent time to roll out this strategy, particularly given the volatility and uncertainty inherent in today’s market environment.

QMN is linked to the IQ Hedge Market Neutral Index and holds other ETFs within its portfolio. The top three holdings are the Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV), iShares Barclays 1-3 Yr Treasury Bond Fund (SHY) and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND).

QMN’s market neutral approach means that it can invest in both long and short positions in various asset classes. These strategies seek to have a zero “beta” or market exposure to one or more systematic risk factors including the overall market (as represented by the S&P 500 Index), economic sectors or industries, market cap, region and country. Market neutral strategies that effectively neutralize the market exposure are not impacted by directional moves in the market.

According to IndexIQ’s prospectus, QMN will charge annual expenses of 0.99%, which include the expenses of the underlying funds held within the portfolio.

 

Retail ETFs: Black Friday Trading Strategies

Courtesy of Daniela Pylypczak

With the 2012 holiday season just around the corner, the U.S. retail sector is already gearing  up for what could be another make-or-break year for many companies. Many retailers generate significant portions of annual revenues and profit during the holiday months of November and December, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales accounting for a significant portion of profits. And with this year’s rather dreary global economic outlook, companies have already begun ramping up advertisements and marketing strategies to get Americans on board again with the holiday shopping craze [see also Consumer-Centric ETFdb Portfolio ETFdb Pro Members Only].

According to the National Retail Federation, up to 147 million shoppers are expected to visit stores and shop online this Black Friday weekend. But with many Americans still feeling the pinch, average holiday gift budgets are forecasted to remain conservative as cash-strapped shoppers reign in their spending; analysts expect the average holiday shopper to spend $749.51 this season, up slightly from the $740.57 that was actually spent last year. NRF President and CEO Mathew Shay believes that “More than half of Americans this holiday season will feel the impact of the economy and will compensate by doing what they’ve been doing for several years – looking for ways to cut any corners, comparative shop online and in stores more often, and even planning to travel less or not at all.”

Though consumer spending is not expected to hit its pre-recession highs this holiday season, the outlook is “cautiously optimistic” despite the challenges seen in our current economic environment. For those looking to make a play on the biggest shopping season of the year, we outline four retail ETF options that could see some high levels of activity in the next few weeks.

  • SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT): With over $610 million in total assets and an average daily trading volume of 3.6 million, this ETF is by far the largest, most popular and most heavily-traded retail fund on the market. XRT offers concentrated exposure to traditional brick-and-mortar retail giants, spreading exposure across about 95 individual holdings. Top holdings include Barnes & Noble (BKS), Netflix (NFLX), SUPERVALU (SVU), Stage Stores (SSI), HSN (HSNI) and AutoZone (AZO).
  • PowerShares Dynamic Retail Portfolio (PMR): This ETF is part of the PowerShares lineup of “intelligent” ETFs linked to benchmarks that use quantitative analysis in an attempt to outperform traditional cap-weighted indexes. The resulting portfolio is rather shallow with only about 30 holdings, though allocations are nicely spread out across large-, mid- and small-cap firms. CVS Caremark (CVS), Kroger (KR), Costco (COST), Wal-Mart (WMT) and Limited Brands (LTD) make up PMR’s top five holdings. Continue reading

China ETFs: A Chinese Menu of Share Class Descriptions

Courtesy of Dennis Hudacheck

Investing in China is tricky. There are now more than 20 China-focused ETFs to choose from, ranging from size and style funds to sector-specific funds. As if sifting through expense ratios, liquidity and holdings isn’t enough, China investors have another big, fundamental factor to consider: Chinese share classes.

Foreign investment in China is still restricted: A U.S. investor cannot simply open a brokerage account and trade locally listed Chinese shares. As a result, there are multiple shares classes of Chinese companies floating around on various exchanges, allowing investors different ways to access this complex market.

Depending on the underlying index that an ETF tracks, some funds are eligible to hold only a certain type of shares. This matters because the different share classes an ETF is eligible, or ineligible, to hold can significantly impact the fund’s performance, and ultimately determine the type of Chinese companies in the portfolio.

Chinese share classes, especially as they relate to ETFs, are often misunderstood—or worse, ignored altogether. We at IndexUniverse think investors deserve better, so we prepared this document to provide insight and guidance on the topic to help investors make an informed decision on choosing the right China ETF. Continue reading

Russian Equities, ETFs: Cheap And Getting Cheaper

Just because something is cheap does not mean it is a good bargain. Such is life for Russian equities and the relevant U.S.-listed ETFs. Amid slumping energy shares, the “R” in the BRIC acronym saw its benchmark Micex Index slip to a three-month low on Tuesday. The slide comes just a couple of weeks after some analysts and traders started calling attention to attractive valuations among Russian stocks.

In late October, the Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: RSX [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]), the oldest and largest Russia ETF, was spotted trading at its widest discount to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (NYSE: EEM) in nearly three months.

Since October 29, RSX has slipped almost 5.1 percent as prices have continued tumbling. The Russian government earns about half its revenue from the sale of crude and natural gas, according to Bloomberg.

RSX allocated 41.6 percent of its weight to energy stocks as of October 31, according to Market Vectors data. That would normally be viewed as an excessive weight to just one sector for any ETF, but the iShares MSCI Russia Capped Index Fund (NYSE: ERUS) allocates almost 56 of its weight to energy names. Continue reading

In Your Face: Option Trading Contrarian Called $FB Move re: post-lockup activity

     Courtesy of John Carney/CNBC

MarketsMuse Editor Note: article below was published Tuesday Nov 13 at 6pm, in advance of $FB lock-up  expiration.

Eight hundred million shares of Facebookare set to “flood” the market Wednesday, as the company’s biggest post-IPO lockup expires.

This has many investors fearful that stock sales from employees could push the stock, which has lost nearly half its value since the IPO, even lower. Some are calling it the “Facebook fiscal cliff.” (Read more: Facebook Drops as Employees Sell Shares)

But not everyone sees this as a reason to sell. In fact, some contrarians think it will be an excellent time to buy Facebook.

Matt Gohd, a senior managing director and options strategist at WallachBeth Capital, thinks Facebook [FB  21.5592    1.6992  (+8.56%)   ] stock could very likely go up in the aftermath of the lockup expiration.

“I think it could go up tomorrow, it will be up next week, and it will be up at the end of the month,” Gohd said.

Gohd’s thesis is pure contrarianism. With so many traders positioning themselves for a downward move in Facebook stock, the stock price may have already incorporated the coming sales. If you believe markets are at all efficient, certainly they should have priced in the shares coming out of lockup.

“The end of the lockup is the worst-kept surprise in U.S. history,” Gohd says.

When the first lockup of Facebook shares was lifted on August 16, shares fell 6.3 percent. But if you bought shares at the closing price on August 16 and held them for a month, you saw an 8.3 percent gain.

I should point out that Gohd pointed out in early August that the lockup expiration could be bullish for the stock

Facebook shares were flat the first trading day following the lockup expiration on October 15. If you bought at the closing price that day, you’ve seen a 2.18 percent gain to date. (And you were up by a nudge more than 19 percent on October 24.) Continue reading

ETP Volatility Report from Velocity Shares

VelocityShares is pleased to present the October 2012 Volatility Report, providing insights into the volatility landscape.

Highlights from this report include:

  • Year-to-Date Performance for the VIX Index is -21%.
  • Year-to-Date Performance for the S&P VIX Futures Indices:
    • Short-Term: -74% (SPVXSP)
    • Mid-Term: -47% (SPVXMP)
    • Tail Risk: -20% (SPVXTRSP)
  • VIX spot increased steadily in October, opening at 15.73 before closing the month at 18.40.
  • VIX Call Option Volume once again reached its second highest levels ever (and the most in over a year) on October 17th, 2012, nearing $850MM traded.
  • The Short-Term S&P 500 VIX Futures Tail Risk Index (SPVXTRSP) ended the month with a long-vol bias of 23.87% long, its greatest long exposure since June 2012.
  • Due to Hurricane Sandy, the stock exchange was closed for two days and reopened on October 31st. While a catastrophic event might be the cause of a spike in volatility, the following was observed:.
    • Short-Term VIX Futures gained 3.62%, which is within one standard deviation of the daily returns observed in October 2012
    • VIX Futures Dollar Volume on the 31st was greater than its 20-day moving average ($2.7B vs. $1.9B)
    • ETP Dollar Volume on the 31st was the same as its 20-day moving average ($1.4B each)
    • VIX Options Trading Volume on the 31st trailed its 20-day moving average (378K vs. 479K)

    For the full report, visit TABBForum.com

     

Flows Spike in Asia ETF Market: The New Fortune Cookie

Courtesy of Tom Lydon

The exchange traded fund business in Asia has seen new inflows of $5.5 billion plus, thanks to recent regulatory changes that have created an opening. This follows a $1.42 billion inflow of new assets seen in September for the Asian ETP industry, confirming the trend.

Debbie Fuhr, a partner at ETFGI, said regulatory changes in China in recent months had made it easier for both foreign investors seeking exposure to the country and domestic investors, reports Sarah Krouse for Dow Jones Newswires. [China ETFs: Wolrd Bank Cuts Growth Outlook for East Asia]

A major game changer allowed Hong Kong subsidiaries of mainland asset managers to launch products that offer investors access to mainland China ‘A’ shares. A-shares are renminbi-denominated shares that are traded on the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges for mainland Chinese investors. The newly launched physical ETF products differ from many mainland products.[ETF Boom Predicted in Asia]

Another rule change gave equities the go-ahead to trade on multiple exchanges, instead of tied to just one, giving greater flexibility to equity funds. [ETF Market Heats Up in Asia]

“If you look at the history of ETFs for the first 11 years, it was all equity benchmarks. I think it’s the natural evolution of the market that most of the products start out being on equity benchmarks that people know and understand, and then they migrate to other asset classes as investors become more comfortable,” Fuhr said.

Furthermore, about 90% of the new $2.6 billion in inflows into emerging markets was via an ETF. Godfrey Obioma for Business Daily Online reports that Asia ex-Japan inflows saw the most growth in the region, from $310 million to $1.2 billion.

The renewed interest in Asia can be viewed as the opposite of the total global economic picture. In other regions of the globe, net inflows dragged in October, slowing to $13.5 billion, according to ETFGI data.

To read the entire article from Index Universe, Click Here